Real-time estimation of solar irradiation

A system to estimate future levels of solar power received at a sensor comprising:

• a memory having computer readable instructions;
• and
• a processor configured to execute the computer readable instructions, the computer readable instructions comprising:
• receiving, by the processor, a first measured power value at a first time from the sensor, wherein the first measured power is measured with a sensor configured to measure a power received from the sun;
• calculating, by the processor, a first value of a dynamic correction factor based on the first measured power value associated with the first time, wherein the dynamic correction factor β is represented as β(n)=β(n−1)+T*w(n), wherein T is a measurement sampling time, wherein w(n) is a value of a random variable at instance n, wherein n is an instance at time t, wherein the first value of the dynamic correction factor is calculated by at least β(n−)=β[(n−1)+], wherein β(n−) is the first value of the dynamic correction factor associated with the first time, wherein n− is the first time, wherein the dynamic correction factor is equal to one at a time prior to the first time;
• applying, by the processor, the first value of the calculated dynamic correction factor to a power estimation model;
• generating, by the processor, a first power estimation value for the first time using the power estimation model;
• receiving, by the processor, a second measured power value at a second time, wherein the second time is later than the first time;
• updating, by the processor, the dynamic correction factor by at least by at least calculating a second value of a dynamic correction factor based on the second measured power value associated with the second time and the first value of the dynamic correction factor, wherein the second value of the dynamic correction factor β is calculated by at least β(n+)=β(n−)+L*[Pm(n)−(n−)], wherein β(n+) is the second value of the dynamic correction factor associated with the second time, wherein Pm(n) is the second measured power, wherein Pe(n−) is the first power estimate value, wherein n is the second time, wherein n+ is a third time that is later than the second time, and wherein L is an estimator gain constant;
• and
• controlling, by the processor, power output of at least one of a solar power plant or a solar generator based in part on a second power estimation value that is generated for the third time using the power estimation model, wherein the second power estimation value is generated by at least calculating, by the processor, Pe(n+)=β(n+)Pmodel(n), wherein Pmodel(n) is the first power estimation value.

A computer program product to estimate future levels of solar power received at a sensor, the computer program product comprising a computer readable storage medium having program instructions embodied therewith, the program instructions executable by a processor to cause the processor to:

• receive, by the processor, a first measured power value at a first time from the sensor, wherein the first measured power is measured with a sensor configured to measure a power received from the sun;
• calculate, by the processor, a first value of a dynamic correction factor based on the first measured power value associated with the first time, wherein the dynamic correction factor β is represented as β(n)=β(n−1)+T*w(n), wherein T is a measurement sampling time, wherein w(n) is a value of a random variable at instance n, wherein n is an instance at time t, wherein the first value of the dynamic correction factor is calculated by at least β(n−)=β[(n−1)+], wherein β(n−) is the first value of the dynamic correction factor associated with the first time, wherein n− is the first time, wherein the dynamic correction factor is equal to one at a time prior to the first time;
• apply, by the processor, the first value of the calculated dynamic correction factor to a power estimation model;
• generate, by the processor, a first power estimation value for the first time using the power estimation model;
• receive, by the processor, a second measured power value at a second time wherein the second time is later than the first time;
• update, by the processor, the dynamic correction factor by at least calculating a second value of a dynamic correction factor based on the second measured power value associated with the second time and the first value of the dynamic correction factor, wherein the second value of the dynamic correction factor β is calculated by at least β(n+)=β(n−)+L*[Pm(n)−Pe(n−)], wherein β(n+) is the second value of the dynamic correction factor associated with the second time, wherein Pm(n) is the second measured power, wherein Pe(n−) is the first power estimate value, wherein n is the second time, wherein n+ is a third time that is later than the second time, and wherein L is an estimator gain constant;
• and
• controlling, by the processor, power output of at least one of a solar power plant or a solar generator based in part on a second power estimation value that is generated for the third time using the power estimation model, wherein the second power estimation value is generated by at least calculating, by the processor, Pe(n+)=β(n+)Pmodel(n), wherein Pmodel(n) is the first power estimation value.