Estimating foot traffic lift in response to an advertisement campaign at an online system

A computer program product comprising a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having instructions encoded thereon that, when executed by a processor, cause the processor to perform teps, the steps comprising:

• identifying a physical location for a store;
• defining an area around the physical location of the store, the area having an outer edge that is a set distance from the physical location;
• identifying, by an online system, a first population of users representing a lifted population that received a content item about the store;
• identifying, by the online system, a second population of users representing a base population of users who did not receive the content item about the store;
• periodically receiving and recording, by the online system, a report of a location of each of the users within the base population and the lifted population, the reported locations received from mobile applications on mobile devices of each of the users, wherein some of the reported locations are from users that belong to an infrequent reporting group that reports locations below a location reporting frequency threshold such that there are fewer reports of locations than for other users not belonging to the infrequent reporting group;
• computing, for each user in the base population of users and the lifted population of users, a distance between the physical location of the store and the reported location of the user and for creating a base distance array corresponding to the base population of users and a lifted distance array corresponding to the lifted population of users, wherein, for users of the infrequent reporting group, the reported location used in the computation is an estimated actual closest location to the store based on a path of travel of each of those users through the defined area;
• determining an aggregate value for each of the base distance array and the lifted distance array, the aggregate value representing a measure of a number of users visiting the store, wherein users are counted as having visited the store when the users have at least one of the reported locations within the defined area around the store or when the users have no reported locations within the defined area but have an estimated actual closest location within the defined area;
• and
• estimating a foot traffic lift for the store by comparing the aggregate value of the lifted distance array with the aggregate value of the base distance array, the estimated foot traffic lift representing a measure of an effect that receiving the content item had on whether or not users visited the store and a measure of an increase in a number of users visiting the store in response to receiving the content item.

A system for estimating foot traffic lift at a store comprising:

• a processor;
• and
• a non-transitory computer-readable memory comprising instructions that when executed by the processor cause the processor to:
• identify a physical location for a store;
• define an area around the physical location of the store, the area having an outer edge that is a set distance from the physical location;
• identify, by an online system, a first population of users representing a lifted population that received a content item about the store;
• identify, by the online system, a second population of users representing a base population of users who did not receive a content item about the store;
• periodically receive and record, by the online system, a report of a location of each of the users within the base population and the lifted population, the reported locations received from mobile applications on mobile devices of each of the users, wherein some of the reported locations are from users that belong to an infrequent reporting group that reports locations below a location reporting frequency threshold such than there are fewer reports of locations that for other users not belonging to the infrequent reporting group;
• compute, for each user in the base population of users and the lifted population of users, a distance between the physical location of the store and the reported location of the user and for creating a base distance array corresponding to the base population of users and a lifted distance array corresponding to the lifted population of users, wherein, for users of the infrequent reporting group, the reported location used in the computation is an estimated actual closest location to the store based on a path of travel of each of those users through the defined area;
• determine an aggregate value for each of the base distance array and the lifted distance array, the aggregate value representing a measure of a number of users visiting the store, wherein users are counted as having visited the store when the users have at least one of the reported locations within the defined area around the store or when the users have no reported locations within the defined area but have an estimated actual closest location within the defined area;
• and
• estimate a foot traffic lift for the store by comparing the aggregate value of the lifted distance array with the aggregate value of the base distance array, the estimated foot traffic lift representing a measure of an effect that receiving the content item had on whether or not users visited the store and a measure of an increase in a number of users visiting the store in response to receiving the content item.