Estimation program, estimation apparatus, and estimation method

An estimation apparatus monitoring a power distribution system in which information of first customers and a second customer are mixed, the estimation apparatus comprising:

• a memory;
• and
• a processor coupled to the memory and configured to:
• acquire first data including first power consumption values measured with a first measurement device installed in association with each of the first customers, the first measurement device measuring the first power consumption values at a first time interval,
• acquire second data including an integral power consumption measured with a second measurement device installed in association with the second customer, the second measurement device measuring the integral power consumption at a second time interval longer than the first time interval,
• normalize the acquired first data of each of the first customers,
• select n sets of normalized first data where n is two or greater, and
• estimate n sets of third data each including second power consumption values every first time interval for the second customer by using selected n sets of normalized first data and the acquired second data,
• estimate n sets of fourth data each including voltage values or current values every first time interval for each of the first customers and the second customer by using the n sets of third data and the acquired first data;
• obtain frequency distribution of a voltage value or a current value at each time for each of the first customers and the second customer by using the n sets of fourth data for each of the first customers and the second customer, and
• output the obtained frequency distribution of the voltage value or the current value at each time for each of the first customers and the second customer to a voltage control device that controls a voltage in a power grid based on the obtained frequency distribution to maintain the voltage in the power grid in a stipulated voltage or less.

An estimation method for causing a computer monitoring a power distribution system in which information of first customers and a second customer are mixed to execute a process, the process comprising:

• acquiring first data including first power consumption values measured with a first measurement device installed in association with each of the first customers, the first measurement device measuring the first power consumption values at a first time interval;
• acquiring second data including an integral power consumption measured with a second measurement device installed in association with the second customer, the second measurement device measuring the integral power consumption at a second time interval longer than the first time interval;
• normalizing the acquired first data of each of the first customers;
• selecting n sets of normalized first data where n is two or greater;
• estimating n sets of third data each including second power consumption values every first time interval for the second customer by using selected n sets of normalized first data and the acquired second data,
• estimating n sets of fourth data each including voltage values or current values every first time interval for each of the first customers and the second customer by using the n sets of third data and the acquired first data;
• obtaining frequency distribution of a voltage value or a current value at each time for each of the first customers and the second customer by using the n sets of fourth data for each of the first customers and the second customer;
• and
• outputting the obtained frequency estimated probability distribution of the voltage value or the current value at each time for each of the first customers and the second customer to a voltage control device that controls a voltage in a power grid based on the obtained frequency distribution to maintain the voltage in the power grid in a stipulated voltage or less.