Journey time estimation

A computer program product for calculating a journey time for a journey between a chosen origin and a chosen destination over a network of roads in a region, the computer program product comprising a non-transitory computer readable storage medium having program code embodied therewith, the program code executable by a processor to:

• plan, by a journey time estimation service, a route for the journey using a route planning algorithm,
• the planning comprising calculating a first journey time for the route based at least in part on data from fixed sensors,
• the chosen origin and the chosen destination received via a client device;
• select a set of historical journeys from a database of entries of historical journeys in the region,
• each journey entry in the database comprising, for a previously completed journey in the region, a journey origin, a journey destination and an actual journey time, where the selected historical journeys have a journey origin and a journey destination that are nearest neighbors to the chosen origin and the chosen destination of the journey;
• calculate a second journey time for the journey based on the selected set of historical journeys;
• estimate an error for the second journey time based on calculating a standard deviation for calculated journey times of the historical journeys in the set, where the journey time of each of the historical journeys in the set is calculated from the actual journey times of the other historical journeys in the set;
• select the second journey time for the journey if the estimated error is below a defined threshold, else selecting the first journey time;
• and
• output the selected journey time for the journey to the client device, wherein each database entry further comprises an actual time of day when the historical journey was made, and where calculating the standard deviation for calculated journey times of the historical journeys in the set comprises providing an estimated time of day for the journey and weighting the selected historical journeys in the calculation in accordance with a difference between the estimated time of day for the journey and the actual journey time of the selected historical journey.

A computer system for calculating a journey time for a journey between a chosen origin and a chosen destination over a network of roads in a region including the chosen origin and chosen destination, the computer system comprising:

• a memory having computer readable instructions;
• and a processor for executing the computer readable instructions, the computer readable instructions including:
• planning, by a journey time estimation service, a route for the journey using a route planning algorithm, the planning comprising calculating a first journey time for the route based at least in part on data from fixed sensors, the chosen origin and the chosen destination received via a client device;
• providing a database of entries of historical journeys in the region, each journey entry in the database comprising, for a previously completed journey in the region, a journey origin, a journey destination and an actual journey time;
• selecting a set of historical journeys from the database, where the selected historical journeys have a journey origin and a journey destination that are nearest neighbors to the chosen origin and the chosen destination of the journey;
• calculating a second journey time for the journey based on the selected set of historical journeys;
• estimating an error for the second journey time based on calculating a standard deviation for calculated journey times of the historical journeys in the set,
• where the journey time of each of the historical journeys in the set is calculated from the actual journey times of the other historical journeys in the set;
• selecting the second journey time for the journey if the estimated error is below a defined threshold, else selecting the first journey time;
• and
• outputting the selected journey time for the journey to the client device, wherein each database entry further comprises an actual time of day when the historical journey was made, and where calculating the standard deviation for calculated journey times of the historical journeys in the set comprises providing an estimated time of day for the journey and weighting the selected historical journeys in the calculation in accordance with a difference between the estimated time of day for the journey and the actual journey time of the selected historical journey.