Forecast system and method of electric power demand
AssigneeHitachi, Ltd.
InventorsToshiyuki Sawa, Shigeki Mori, Jun Yamazaki
Life of this patent
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Abstract
A plurality of forecast weather groups in a period comprising a plurality of days including a forecast target day for forecasting the electric power demand, and a plurality of actual weather groups in a period in a plurality of days in the past are set as the target period, and the similarity between the forecast weather group and the plurality of actual weather groups is calculated, a trend of a subsequent electric power demand is predicted based on the comparison of the plurality of calculated similarities whereby the electric power demand of a forecast target day is known.
Claims7
An electric power demand forecast system which calculates a similarity between a weather record in the past and subsequent forecast weather data, and with the use of the similarity, which predicts a subsequent electric power demand from forecast weather data of a forecast target day and electric power demand data corresponding to the weather record, the system comprising:
- a demand forecast target setting unit configured to carry out condition setting for calculating the similarity;
- a similar period search condition setting unit configured to set a target period in which the similarity is calculated and to set a similarity variable associated with the condition for the target period and a weighting factor corresponding to the similarity variable, wherein the similarity variable is selectively adoptable or non-adoptable for similarity calculation by user input via an input device by selecting a first graphical symbol on the input device to adopt the similarity variable and selecting a second graphical symbol different from the first graphical symbol on the input device to not adopt the similarity variable, and if the condition is not or cannot initially be associated with a numerical value, the condition is converted into one or more numbers related to the condition in order calculate the similarity;
- a similarity calculation unit configured to calculate the similarity based on the condition set by the demand forecast target setting unit and based on the target period and the weighting factor for the similarity variable set by the similar period search condition setting unit;
- a demand forecast model construction unit configured to model a trend of a subsequent electric power demand based on the similarity calculated by the similarity calculation unit;
- and
- a demand forecast unit configured to forecast an electric power demand based on forecast weather data of a forecast target day from the trend of a subsequent electric power demand modeled by the demand forecast model construction unit, wherein
- the similar period search condition setting unit sets, as the target period, a plurality of forecast weather groups in a period comprising a plurality of days including a forecast target day for forecasting the electric power demand, and a plurality of actual weather groups in a period in a plurality of days in the past, wherein
- the similarity calculation unit calculates the similarity between the forecast weather group and the plurality of actual weather groups, wherein
- the demand forecast model construction unit models a trend of a subsequent electric power demand using an actual weather group selected based on comparison of the plurality of calculated similarities, and wherein
- the demand forecast unit calculates an electric power demand of a forecast target day;
- and
- the electric power demand forecast system controls operation of equipment of an electric power system based on the calculated electric power demand.
An electric power demand forecast method, which calculates a similarity between a weather record in the past and subsequent forecast weather data, and with the use of the similarity, which predicts a subsequent electric power demand from forecast weather data of a forecast target day and electric power demand data corresponding to the weather record, the method comprising the steps of:
- setting a weather condition for calculating the similarity;
- setting, as a target period, a plurality of forecast weather groups in a period comprising a plurality of days including a forecast target day for forecasting the electric power demand, and a plurality of actual weather groups in a period in a plurality of days in the past;
- setting a similarity variable associated with the weather condition for the target period and a weighting factor corresponding to the similarity variable, wherein the similarity variable is selectively adoptable or non-adoptable for similarity calculation by user input via an input device by selecting a first graphical symbol on the input device to adopt the similarity variable and selecting a second graphical symbol different from the first graphical symbol on the input device to not adopt the similarity variable, and if the condition is not or cannot initially be associated with a numerical value, the condition is converted into one or more numbers related to the condition in order to calculate the similarity;
- calculating the similarity between the forecast weather group and the plurality of actual weather groups based on the weather condition and the target period and the weighting factor for the similarity variable;
- modeling a trend of a subsequent electric power demand based on comparison of the plurality of calculated similarities;
- and
- forecasting an electric power demand of the forecast target day based on the trend of the modeled subsequent electric power demand and forecast weather data of the forecast target day;
- and
- the electric power demand forecast system controls operation of equipment of an electric power system based on the calculated electric power demand.
Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.