Methods and systems for selecting content for display based on conversion probabilities of paths

A system for measuring conversion probabilities of a plurality of path types for an attribution model, comprising:

• a data processing system having a content selection module, the data processing system further comprising:
• a memory storing processor-executable instructions;
• and
• a processor configured to execute the processor-executable instructions to:
• identify a visitor identifier associated with a device on which to display content;
• identify a path associated with the visitor identifier, the path corresponding to a sequence of events through which the visitor identifier has visited the website, each of the events:
• associated with an index position indicating a position of the event within the path;
• and
• having an event type from among a plurality of event types;
• define a plurality of path types, each path type defined as a path comprising a number of events, the events comprising a series of event types occurring in a particular order at particular index positions within the path;
• determine a path type from the plurality of path types for the identified path by identifying the path type having the same number of event as the identified path and series of events in the order and the index positions as the identified path;
• identify a conversion probability of the path type, the conversion probability of the path type indicating a likelihood that the visitor identifier will convert at the website after the sequence of events associated with the path type, the conversion probability of the path type is a ratio of a number of paths that matches the path type and led to conversions at the website to a total number of paths that matches the path type over a given time period;
• determine a plurality of possible paths by adding one or more additional events at the end of the sequence of events of the identified path;
• for each possible path,
• determine a path type of the possible path from the plurality of path types;
• and
• identify a conversion probability of the path type of the possible path;
• select a possible path based on the conversion probabilities associated with the plurality of possible paths;
• and
• select content for display on the device, the content selected based on one or more additional events associated with the selected possible path.

A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having instructions to provide information via a computer network, the instructions comprising instructions to:

• identify a visitor identifier associated with a device on which to display content;
• identify a path associated with the visitor identifier, the path corresponding to a sequence of events through which the visitor identifier has visited the website, each of the events:
• associated with an index position indicating a position of the event within the path;
• and
• having an event type from among a plurality of event types;
• define a plurality of path types, each path type defined as a path comprising a number of events, the events comprising a series of event types occurring in a particular order at particular index positions within the path;
• determine a path type from the plurality of path types for the identified path by identifying the path type having the same number of event as the identified path and series of events in the order and the index positions as the identified path;
• identify a conversion probability of the path type, the conversion probability of the path type indicating a likelihood that the visitor identifier will convert at the website after the sequence of events associated with the path type, the conversion probability of the path type is a ratio of a number of paths that matches the path type and led to conversions at the website to a total number of paths that matches the path type over a given time period;
• determine a plurality of possible paths by adding one or more additional events at the end of the sequence of events of the identified path;
• for each possible path,
• determine a path type of the possible path from the plurality of path types;
• and
• identify a conversion probability of the path type of the possible path;
• select a possible path based on the conversion probabilities associated with the plurality of possible paths;
• and
• select content for display on the device, the content selected based on one or more additional events associated with the selected possible path.