Systems and methods for gas turbine operational impact modeling using statistical and physics-based methodologies

A system for operational impact modeling, the system comprising:

• one or more processors operable to:
• receive operational conditions data from one or more sensors associated with a gas turbine;
• and
• based on a probability of the failure, adjust operating parameters associated with a hardware component;
• a physics based analysis technique operable to generate an operational impact factor based at least in part on the operational conditions data;
• a database and real time operational model including historical operational conditions data associated with the hardware component of the gas turbine;
• a comparison module operable to generate operational variation data based at least on the operational conditions data and the historical operational conditions data and real-time operational conditions data;
• a statistical methods module operable to generate an operational profile based at least in part on the operational variation data, wherein, when generating the operational profile, the statistical methods module is operable to:
• receive historical operational variation data associated with reference hardware components;
• compare, using one or more statistical algorithms, the operational variation data associated with the hardware component to the historical operational variation data associated with the reference hardware components;
• and
• based at least in part on the comparison, profile the hardware component, the profiling including attributing hardware failures of the reference hardware components operating under substantially similar operational variations to the hardware component;
• and
• a prediction module operable to generate the probability of a failure of the hardware component within a specified time period based at least in part on the operational impact factor and the operational profile.

A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having embodied thereon a program, the program being executable by a processor to perform a method for operational impact modeling, the method comprising:

• receiving, by one or more processors, operational variation data associated with a hardware component of a gas turbine;
• based at least in part on the operational variation data, applying, by the one or more processors, statistical methods to establish an operational profile of the hardware component, wherein establishing the operational profile comprises:
• receiving historical operational variation data associated with reference hardware components;
• comparing, using one or more statistical algorithms, the operational variation data associated with the hardware component to the historical operational variation data associated with the reference hardware components;
• and
• based at least in part on the comparison, profiling the hardware component, the profiling including attributing hardware failures of the reference hardware components operating under substantially similar operational variations to the hardware component;
• receiving, by the one or more processors, operating parameters data and operational conditions data associated with the hardware component;
• based at least in part on the operating parameters data and the operational conditions data, applying, by the one or more processors, physics-based methods to establish an operational impact factor of the hardware component;
• and
• based at least in part on the operational profile and the operational impact factor determining, by the one or more processors, a probability of a failure of the hardware component within a time period;
• and
• based on the probability of the failure, adjusting the operating parameters associated with the hardware component.