Methods and apparatus to calculate video-on-demand and dynamically inserted advertisement viewing probability

An apparatus to reduce waste of a first advertising targeting strategy for a first media, the apparatus comprising:

• a category manager to:
• identify a first set of households associated with a target set of categories associated with the first advertising targeting strategy, the first media presented in the first set of households with a first time shift delay;
• and
• identify a second set of households associated with the target set of categories associated with the first advertising targeting strategy, the first media presented in the second set of households with a second time shift delay;
• a probability engine to:
• calculate a first viewing probability associated with the first time shift delay based on a ratio of (a) exposure minutes of the first media in the first set of households, and (b) tuning minutes of the first media in the first set of households;
• and
• reduce waste of the first advertising targeting strategy of the first media associated with the second time shift delay by selecting a second advertising targeting strategy for the first media in response to determining that the second time shift delay of the first media has a second viewing probability that is less than the first viewing probability, the determination being based on a ratio of (a) exposure minutes of the first media in the second set of households, and (b) tuning minutes of the first media in the second set of households.

A tangible computer-readable storage medium comprising instructions that, when executed, cause a processor to, at least:

• identify a first set of households associated with a target set of categories associated with a first advertising targeting strategy, a first media presented in the first set of households with a first time shift delay;
• calculate a first viewing probability associated with the first time shift delay based on a ratio of (a) exposure minutes of the first media in the first set of households, and (b) tuning minutes of the first media in the first set of households;
• identify a second set of households associated with the target set of categories associated with the first advertising targeting strategy, the first media presented in the second set of households with a second time shift delay;
• and
• reduce waste of the first advertising targeting strategy of the first media associated with the second time shift delay by selecting a second advertising targeting strategy for the first media in response to determining that the second time shift delay of the first media has a second viewing probability that is less than the first viewing probability, the determination being based on a ratio of (a) exposure minutes of the first media in the second set of households, and (b) tuning minutes of the first media in the second set of households.