Method and system for determining accuracy of a weather prediction model

A system for determining the accuracy of a plurality of mesoscale weather models comprising:

• at least one input for inputting a plurality of mesoscale weather models, user parameters, initialization data and actual result data;
• at least one memory for storage of mesoscale weather models, user parameters, initial data and actual result data;
• a user interface operatively connected to the at least one input configured to enable a user to determine the most accurate mesoscale weather model from a plurality of mesoscale weather models;
• the user interface operating to display a menu enabling the user to select an area of the world for determining the most accurate mesoscale weather model;
• at least one processor operatively connected to at least one memory, the at least one processor operating to select inputted user parameters and extract first data corresponding to the selected user parameters from the initialization data and actual result data, the at least one processor operating to modify and compile each of a plurality of mesoscale weather models according to the selected user parameters,
• the at least one processor configured to execute each of the plurality of mesoscale models based on the selected user parameters to generate output data in order to compare and rate each mesoscale model and wherein the comparing compares the tendency to over-estimate or under-estimate the selected weather parameters by each of the plurality of mesoscale weather models,
• the at least one processor operating to convert sigma-level analysis of the mesoscale models to pressure level analysis of the mesoscale models;
• the at least one processor operating to compare the output data to the actual result data and generate an accuracy rating for each of the plurality of mesoscale weather models for the most accurate surface level model and the most accurate upper-air level model and make a selection based on the accuracy of each of the plurality of mesoscale weather models.

A system for determining the accuracy of a plurality of mesoscale weather models comprising:

• at least one processor;
• at least one memory configured to store instructions and data used by the at least one processor;
• the at least one memory comprising an error metric for evaluating the performance of the plurality of mesoscale weather models;
• at least one input for inputting into at least one processor a plurality of mesoscale weather models used for creating weather forecasts over a mesoscale area;
• and initial weather data comprising surface level and upper air temperatures and wind conditions for use by the plurality of mesoscale weather models;
• and actually measured naturally occurring surface level and the upper-air level weather conditions;
• the at least one processor operating to use the mesoscale weather models to generate output data comprising forecasted temperatures, wind conditions, relative humidity, and predicted weather conditions;
• the at least one processor operating to convert sigma-level analysis of the mesoscale models to pressure level analysis of the mesoscale models;
• the at least one processor operating to compare the output data to actually measured data obtained when same or similar initial weather data were present and subsequent resulting temperatures, wind conditions and weather conditions were measured;
• the at least one processor operating to generate an accuracy rating based upon an error metric reflecting the deviation of temperature, wind conditions, relative humidity, and weather conditions predicted by the mesoscale weather models as compared to the actually measured surface level and the upper-air level weather conditions.