Predicting likelihood of on-time product delivery, diagnosing issues that threaten delivery, and exploration of likely outcome of different solutions

A system for predicting a probability distribution of completion times for a project, comprising:

• a processor;
• a task estimator operable to execute on the processor and further operable to receive a set of unfinished tasks belonging to the project and attributes associated with the unfinished tasks, the task estimator further operable to receive one or more of, a set of completed tasks belonging to the project and attributes associated with the completed tasks belonging to the project, a set of completed tasks not belonging to the project and attributes associated with the completed tasks not belonging to the project, or combinations thereof,
• the task estimator further operable to determine a probability distribution of an estimated effort needed to complete each of the unfinished tasks based on one or more of the set of completed tasks belonging to the project and attributes associated with the completed tasks belonging to the project, the set of completed tasks not belonging to the project and attributes associated with the completed tasks not belonging to the project, or the combination of both;
• a project completion predictor operable to execute on the processor and further operable to receive one or more resource and scheduling constraints associated with the project, the project completion predictor further operable to determine the probability distribution of completion time for the project based on the probability distribution of an estimated effort needed to complete each of the unfinished tasks and the one or more resource and scheduling constraints associated with the project,
• wherein the task estimator comprises a task estimation model built based on one or more of the set of completed tasks belonging to the project and attributes associated with the completed tasks belonging to the project, or the set of completed tasks not belonging to the project and attributes associated with the completed tasks not belonging to the project, or the combination of both,
• wherein the task estimator determines the probability distribution of an estimated effort needed to complete each of the unfinished tasks by applying the set of unfinished tasks belonging to the project and attributes associated with the unfinished tasks to the task estimation model.

A non-transitory computer readable storage medium storing a program of instructions executable by a machine to perform a method of predicting a probability distribution of completion times for a project, the method comprising:

• receiving a set of unfinished tasks belonging to the project and attributes associated with the unfinished tasks;
• obtaining a probability distribution of an estimated effort needed to complete each of the unfinished tasks;
• determining the probability distribution of completion time for the project based on the probability distribution of an estimated effort needed to complete each of the unfinished tasks;
• receiving one or more resource and scheduling constraints associated with the project, wherein the determining comprises determining the probability distribution of completion time for the project based on the probability distribution of an estimated effort needed to complete each of the unfinished tasks and on the one or more resource and scheduling constraints associated with the project;
• and
• building a task estimation model based on one or more of a set of completed tasks belonging to the project and attributes associated with the completed tasks belonging to the project, or a set of completed tasks not belonging to the project and attributes associated with the completed tasks not belonging to the project, or a user estimates of effort involved in finishing one or more of the unfinished tasks belonging to the project, or combination of thereof;
• and
• applying the set of unfinished tasks belonging to the project to the task estimation model to determine a probability distribution of an estimated effort needed to complete each of the unfinished tasks.