Refining information on subterranean fractures

A computer-implemented method for simulating an injection treatment, the method comprising:

• receiving a plurality of distinct fracture models, each fracture model indicating a distinct model location for one or more subterranean fractures, each of the fracture models being based on an initial probability distribution of values for a fracture parameter;
• and
• generating, by operation of data processing apparatus, a refined probability distribution of values for the fracture parameter based on comparing the distinct model location in each fracture model against a common set of measured locations of microseismic events in a subterranean region, wherein the comparing comprises:
• generating a plurality of map images, each map image comprising a representation of one of the plurality of fracture models and a representation of the measured locations of the microseismic events;
• presenting the plurality of map images in a graphical user interface;
• and
• at least one of:
• receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture models as an accurate representation of the measured locations of the microseismic events;
• or
• receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture models as an inaccurate representation of the measured locations of the microseismic events.

A system for performing an injection treatment, the system comprising:

• an injection treatment control subsystem adapted to control an injection treatment applied to a subterranean formation through a well bore defined in the subterranean formation, the injection treatment based on a predicted probability distribution of values for a natural fracture parameter;
• and
• a computing subsystem adapted to:
• generate a plurality of distinct fracture pattern models by sampling an initial probability distribution of values for the natural fracture parameter, each distinct fracture pattern model including a distinct set of model fracture locations;
• and
• generate the predicted probability distribution from the initial probability distribution based on comparing the set of model fracture locations in each of the fracture pattern models to microseismic event locations for a subterranean region, the same microseismic event locations being compared against each distinct set of model fracture locations, wherein the comparing comprises:
• generating a plurality of map images, each map image comprising a representation of one of the plurality of fracture pattern models and a representation of the microseismic event locations;
• presenting the plurality of map images in a graphical user interface;
• and
• at least one of:
• receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture pattern models as an accurate representation of the microseismic event locations;
• or
• receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture pattern models as an inaccurate representation of the microseismic event locations.

A method of treating a subterranean formation, the method comprising:

• generating a plurality of distinct fracture pattern models based on a probability distribution of values for a fracture parameter, each distinct fracture pattern model including a distinct set of model fracture locations;
• generating, by operation of one or more computers, an updated probability distribution based on correlations between the fracture pattern models and microseismic event locations for a subterranean formation, the correlations being identified by comparing the same set of microseismic event locations against each distinct set of fracture model locations, wherein generating the updated probability distribution comprises:
• generating a plurality of map images, each map image comprising a representation of one of the plurality of fracture pattern models and a representation of the microseismic event locations;
• presenting the plurality of map images in a graphical user interface;
• and
• at least one of:
• receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture pattern models as an accurate representation of the microseismic event locations;
• or
• receiving user input through the graphical user interface, the user input identifying at least one of the fracture pattern models as an inaccurate representation of the microseismic event locations;
• designing an injection treatment based on the updated probability distribution;
• and
• using an injection treatment control subsystem to apply the injection treatment to the subterranean formation through a well bore in the subterranean formation.