System and method for predicting multiple-disk failures

A non-transitory machine-readable medium having instructions stored therein, which when executed by a processor, cause the processor to perform a method for predicting disk failures in a redundant array of independent disks (RAID) environment, the method comprising:

• receiving first values of a predetermined diagnostic parameter collected from a set of known failed disks of a storage system;
• generating a quantile distribution graph of the first values against percentiles of a number of known failed disks;
• in response to second values of the predetermined diagnostic parameter collected from a set of target disks, applying each of the second values to the quantile distribution graph to determine a corresponding percentile for each of the target disks, which represents a failure probability of a corresponding one of the target disks;
• and
• calculating a failure probability of two or more of the target disks based on the determined percentiles of the target disks.

A data processing system for predicting disk failures in a redundant array of independent disks (RAID) environment, the system comprising:

• a processor;
• and
• a memory coupled to the processor for storing instructions, which when executed from the memory, cause the processor to perform a method, the method including
• receiving first values of a predetermined diagnostic parameter collected from a set of known failed disks of a storage system,
• generating a quantile distribution graph of the first values against percentiles of a number of known failed disks,
• in response to second values of the predetermined diagnostic parameter collected from a set of target disks, applying each of the second values to the quantile distribution graph to determine a corresponding percentile for each of the target disks, which represents a failure probability of a corresponding one of the target disks, and
• calculating a failure probability of two or more of the target disks based on the determined percentiles of the target disks.