Arginine vasopressin pro-hormone as predictive biomarker for diabetes

A method for predicting the risk of a subject for contracting diabetes mellitus and/or metabolic syndrome or for identifying a subject having an enhanced risk for contracting diabetes mellitus and/or metabolic syndrome or for diagnosing metabolic syndrome in a subject wherein said subject is non-diabetic, comprising:

• (a) detecting and quantitating the level of a marker consisting of arginine vasopressin pro-hormone or fragments thereof in a sample from said patient,
• wherein said detection and quantitation comprises contacting the sample with a diagnostic assay reagent comprising a capture probe that specifically binds to arginine vasopressin pro-hormone or a fragment thereof selected from copeptin and neurophysin II, and detecting and quantitating thus-formed complexes of capture probe and arginine vasopressin pro-hormone, copeptin or neuorphysin II, and
• (b) predicting the risk of the subject for contracting diabetes mellitus and/or metabolic syndrome or inferring from it a risk for contracting diabetes mellitus and/or metabolic syndrome for said subject or for diagnosing metabolic syndrome in said subject by comparing the level of arginine vasopressin pro-hormone, copeptin or neurophysin II in the patient to the level of arginine vasopressin pro-hormone, copeptin or neurophysin II in an ensemble of pre-determined samples in a population of comparable apparently healthy subjects who later contracted diabetes mellitus or metabolic syndrome or did not contract said conditions, wherein said prediction or inference is based on a statistically significant correlation of the level of the marker in the patient sample with the levels of the marker in the pre-determined samples.