System and method for estimating and providing dispatchable operating reserve energy capacity through use of active load management

A method for estimating operating reserve of a utility servicing one or more service points, the method comprising:

• determining amounts of electric power consumed by at least one device during multiple periods of time to produce power consumption data, the at least one device being located at the one or more service points and including at least one environmentally-dependent device;
• storing the power consumption data in a repository;
• determining that a control event is to occur during which a supply of electric power is to be reduced to the at least one device;
• after storage of the power consumption data in the repository and prior to commencement of the control event, estimating, under an assumption that the control event is not to occur, power consumption behavior expected of the at least one device during a future period of time based at least on the stored power consumption data, wherein the control event is expected to occur during the future period of time;
• determining, prior to commencement of the control event, energy savings expected to result from the control event based at least on the estimated power consumption behavior of the at least one device to produce projected energy savings;
• and
• determining, prior to commencement of the control event, an amount of available operating reserve based on the projected energy savings;
• wherein the step of estimating power consumption behavior expected of the at least one device includes:
• determining at least one environmental characteristic expected during the future period of time at a service point at which the at least one environmentally-dependent device is located;
• determining, based on stored user settings, a maximum allowable variance of the at least one environmental characteristic in an area at the service point monitored by the environmentally-dependent device;
• and
• estimating, prior to commencement of the control event and based at least on the stored power consumption data, the at least one environmental characteristic and the maximum allowable variance of the at least one environmental characteristic, an amount of power that the at least one environmentally-dependent device would be expected to consume during the future period of time if the control event was not to occur.

A method for estimating operating reserve of a utility servicing one or more service points, the method comprising:

• determining amounts of electric power consumed by at least one device during multiple periods of time to produce power consumption data, the at least one device being located at the one or more service points and including at least one environmentally-independent device;
• storing the power consumption data in a repository;
• determining that a control event is to occur during which a supply of electric power is to be reduced to the at least one device;
• after storage of the power consumption data in the repository and prior to commencement of the control event, estimating, under an assumption that the control event is not to occur, power consumption behavior expected of the at least one device during a future period of time based at least on the stored power consumption data, wherein the control event is expected to occur during the future period of time;
• determining, prior to commencement of the control event, energy savings expected to result from the control event based at least on the estimated power consumption behavior of the at least one device to produce projected energy savings;
• and
• determining, prior to commencement of the control event, an amount of available operating reserve based on the projected energy savings;
• wherein estimating power consumption behavior expected of the at least one device during the future period of time includes:
• determining whether, absent occurrence of the control event, the at least one environmentally-independent device is expected to be consuming power during the future period of time period based on the stored power consumption data;
• in the event that, absent occurrence of the control event, the at least one environmentally-independent device would be consuming power during the future period of time,
• determining a duty cycle for the at least one environmentally-independent device based on the stored power consumption data;
• and
• estimating, based on the stored power consumption data and the duty cycle, an amount of power that the at least one environmentally-independent device would be expected to consume during the future period of time if the control event was not to occur.

A method for estimating operating reserve of a utility servicing one or more service points, the method comprising:

• determining amounts of electric power consumed by at least one device during multiple periods of time to produce power consumption data, the at least one device being located at the one or more service points and including at least one environmentally-dependent device;
• storing the power consumption data in a repository, wherein the repository includes a plurality of time periods and wherein power consumption data is stored in the repository in association with the multiple time periods during which electric power was determined to be consumed by the at least one device;
• determining that a control event is to occur during which a supply of electric power is to be reduced to the at least one device;
• after storage of the power consumption data in the repository and prior to commencement of the control event, estimating, under an assumption that the control event is not to occur, power consumption behavior expected of the at least one device during a future period of time based at least on the stored power consumption data, wherein the control event is expected to occur during the future period of time;
• determining, prior to commencement of the control event, energy savings expected to result from the control event based at least on the estimated power consumption behavior of the at least one device to produce projected energy savings;
• and
• determining, prior to commencement of the control event, an amount of available operating reserve based on the projected energy savings;
• wherein estimating power consumption behavior of the at least one device includes:
• comparing the future period of time to time periods stored in the repository;
• in the event that the future period of time corresponds to at least one particular time period stored in the repository, determining whether the repository includes power consumption data for the at least one device during the at least one particular time period;
• and
• in the event that the repository includes power consumption data for the at least one device during the at least one particular time period, retrieving from the repository one or more values corresponding to one or more amounts of power that the at least one device would be expected to consume during the future period of time if the control event was not to occur.

A system for implementing a virtual utility that is operable to at least offer energy to one or more requesting utilities for use as operating reserve for the requesting utilities, the system comprising:

• a repository;
• and
• at least one processor coupled to the repository, the at least one processor operable to:
• determine amounts of electric power consumed by at least one device during multiple periods of time to produce power consumption data, the at least one device being located remotely from the processor;
• store the power consumption data in the repository;
• determine that a control event is to occur during which a supply of electric power is to be reduced to the at least one device;
• after storage of the power consumption data in the repository and prior to commencement of the control event, estimate, under an assumption that the control event is not to occur, power consumption behavior expected of the at least one device during a future period of time based at least on the stored power consumption data, wherein the control event is expected to occur during the future period of time;
• determine, prior to commencement of the control event, energy savings expected to result from the control event based at least on the estimated power consumption behavior of the at least one device to produce projected energy savings;
• determine, prior to commencement of the control event, an amount of operating reserve based on the projected energy savings;
• and
• manage distribution of the amount of operating reserve to at least one of the requesting utilities subsequent to commencement of the control event;
• wherein determination of energy savings expected to result from the control event includes:
• determining an amount of power expected to be consumed by the at least one device during the future period of time absent occurrence of the control event to produce first energy savings;
• determining an amount of power that is not expected to be dissipated in transmission lines as a result of withholding delivery of power to the at least one device during the control event to produce second energy savings;
• and
• summing the first energy savings and the second energy savings.