Lifecycle obsolescence forecasting tool

A lifecycle obsolescence forecasting method for maintaining an aircraft, the method comprising:

• receiving, at a processor operating in communication with a non-transitory computer readable storage medium, part information for a plurality of parts used for the aircraft,
• wherein the part information includes, for the plurality of parts, a number of failures data, stock level data, end of life date data, and end of repair date data;
• receiving, at the processor, sustainability requirements for a part in the plurality of parts,
• wherein the sustainability requirements consist at least of part stock quantity, part sustainment date, part cost, part repair cost, part usage rate, part reliability rate, and part data;
• and
• analyzing, with the processor, the part information and the sustainability requirements to establish a component stock-out date for the part,
• wherein the component stock-out date comprises a date when a last spare of the part is forecast to be removed from stock, and
• wherein the component stock-out date is established as a function of at least the part usage rate and a corresponding failure rate of the part;
• monitoring and maintaining a physical inventory of parts for the aircraft based on both the component stock-out date and an expected lifetime of a physical system or a physical system type that includes at least some parts in the physical inventory of parts.

A lifecycle obsolescence forecasting system for maintaining an aircraft comprising:

• a processor;
• a bus in communication with the processor;
• a memory in communication with the bus,
• wherein the memory comprises a non-transitory computer readable storage medium storing instructions which, when executed by the processor, perform a method,
• wherein the instructions comprise:
• instructions for receiving part information for a plurality of parts for a physical system type,
• wherein the part information includes, for the plurality of parts, a number of end of life date data and end of repair date data;
• instructions for receiving sustainability requirements for a part in the plurality of parts,
• wherein the sustainability requirements consist at least of part stock quantity, part sustainment date, part cost, part repair cost, part usage rate, part reliability rate, and part data;
• instructions for analyzing the part information and the sustainability requirements to establish a component stock-out date for the part,
• wherein the component stock-out date is selected from the group consisting of a date when the part is forecast to become obsolete, a date when support services for the part are forecast to be no longer readily available at all wherein the part is otherwise serviceable, a date when repair services for the part are forecast to be no longer readily available at all wherein the part is otherwise reparable, a date when spares for the part are forecast to be no longer produced at all, and a date when the spares of the part are forecast to be no longer readily available at all, and wherein the component stock-out date is established as a function of at least the part usage rate and a corresponding failure rate of the part;
• and
• an inventory of physical parts for the physical system type, the inventory being monitored and maintained based on the component stock-out date and an expected lifetime of the physical system type that includes at least some parts in the physical inventory of parts.