Adoption simulation with evidential reasoning using agent models in a hierarchical structure

An agent-based evidential reasoning decision computer system for determining an adoption rate of a trend, the system comprising a processor and a computer-readable storage device having encoded thereon computer-executable instructions that are executable by the processor to perform functions, the system further comprising:

• a plurality of nodes arranged in a tree structure, a topology of the tree structure determined by a subject matter expert in an area of the decision, the topology defining a hierarchy of the tree structure and an interconnection of the nodes, the plurality of nodes defining an evidential reasoning algorithm where lower level nodes receive factors to be considered in the decision, each node assigns a likelihood of an outcome of the received factors, and generates an output to a subsequent higher level node or root of the tree structure;
• a plurality of agent models organized in a hierarchical structure, each agent model comprising a respective set of the plurality of nodes and an output of the agent model, each agent model representing at least one of a member of a population and a subset of the population;
• and
• an aggregator algorithm configured to combine the outputs of the plurality of agent models to generate an output representing an adoption rate.