System for an engine for forecasting cyber threats and method for forecasting cyber threats using the system

A method of forecasting a cyber threat in a cyber threat forecast engine system having a forecast information database (DB) storing forecast information including a plurality of cyber threat forecast items with a forecast item hierarchical structure, a forecast schedule and forecast model information related to the cyber threat forecast items, forecast item hierarchical structure information, cyber threat time-series data, and cyber threat sample data, the method comprising:

• reading the cyber threat forecast items, the forecast schedule, the forecast model information, and the forecast item hierarchical structure information from the forecast information DB, storing the read information in a memory, and configuring forecasters based on the forecast item hierarchical structure information to initialize the system;
• periodically checking the forecast schedule stored in the memory and determining whether or not it is a forecast time point;
• when it is the forecast time point according to the forecast schedule, searching for a forecaster corresponding to a forecast item related to the forecast schedule and
• providing forecast model information related to the forecast item to the searched forecaster;
• reading, at the forecaster, at least one of the forecast information from the forecast information DB and forecasting a corresponding forecast item based on the provided forecast model information;
• and
• storing a forecast result including a forecast value calculated by the forecaster in the forecast information DB,
• wherein the cyber threat forecast items with the forecast item hierarchical structure comprise cyber threat forecast items belonging to a lower level of the forecast item hierarchical structure and cyber threat forecast items belonging to an upper level of the forecast item hierarchical structure, and
• wherein a forecast value of a degree of threat with respect to each of the cyber threat forecast items belonging to the lower level of the forecast item hierarchical structure is calculated, and a forecast value of a degree of threat with respect to each of the cyber threat forecast items belonging to the upper level of the forecast item hierarchical structure is further calculated by giving weights to the forecast value of each of the cyber threat forecast items belonging to the lower level of the forecast item hierarchical structure and adding u the weighted results.