# US 8,788,306 B2 · Updating a forecast model > Agents: this data is available as JSON from the patentgrep API and MCP server — see https://patentgrep.com/llms.txt - Number: US 8,788,306 B2 - Document ID: US8788306B2 - Status: Granted - Kind: B2 - Application number: 12/040,651 - Filed: 2008-02-29 - Published: 2008-09-11 - Granted: 2014-07-22 - Earliest claimed: 2007-03-05 - Assignees: International Business Machines Corporation - Applicants: Phillip D. Delurgio; James Drew; Lisa Laane - Inventors: Phillip D. Delurgio; James Drew; Lisa Laane - Web page: https://patentgrep.com/patent/US8788306B2 ## CPC - G06Q 10/063: Operations research, analysis or management - G06Q 10/04: Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" (market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202) - G06Q: INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR ## Abstract A method for updating a forecast model is disclosed. The forecast model includes parameters that receives collected data representing historical dependent and causal data. The collected data are in different units of measure from one another. Based on the collected data, the forecast model is applied to determine a total error value from a calculation performed on the parameters in the forecast model. To update the forecast model, additional parameters are added, existing parameters are modified, or parameters are removed from the forecast model to determine a modified total error value. The modified total error value is then compared to the original total error value. The parameters are also converted to normalized values to be in a common unit of measure to facilitate the application of the forecast model to determine a total error value. ## Claims ### Claim 1 A computerized method for updating a forecast model comprising: receiving in a computer system an original forecast model, the forecast model including a plurality of inputs; receiving in the computer system a plurality of original input values for the plurality of inputs, wherein the plurality of original input values are of a different unit of measure from one another; converting in the computer system each of the plurality of original input values to a common monetary input value based upon an associated cost to each of the original input values, wherein the common monetary input values are of a same unit of measure; determining in the computer system an original total value based on a sum of the common monetary input values; converting in the computer system each of the plurality of original input values to a normalized percentage value based upon a percentage of the original total value provided by the common monetary input value for each of the plurality of original input values; determining in the computer system a modified total value based on a parameter applied to the original total value; and generating in the computer system modified values for the plurality of inputs based upon applying each of the normalized percentage values to the modified total value. ### Claim 2 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1, wherein the modified total value is different from the original total value by a predetermined percentage and a sum of the modified values is equal to the modified total value. ### Claim 3 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1, wherein receiving the plurality of original input values further comprises specifying a period for determining the plurality of original input values. ### Claim 4 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1, wherein determining the modified total value further comprises specifying a range of values for at least one parameter related to the plurality of inputs. ### Claim 5 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1, wherein converting the plurality of original input values to a normalized percentage value further comprises modifying a parameter related to one of the normalized percentage values for the plurality of inputs. ### Claim 6 (depends on 5) The method of claim 5, further comprising: determining an initial value for the parameter. ### Claim 7 (depends on 5) The method of claim 5, wherein modifying the parameter is in response to determining whether the modified total value is below a specified threshold, the specified threshold being based on a relationship to the original total value. ### Claim 8 (depends on 5) The method of claim 5, wherein modifying the parameter is in response to determining that an external factor has influenced the modified total value. ### Claim 9 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1, wherein the normalized percentage values include at least one set of interrelated values. ### Claim 10 (depends on 9) The method of claim 9, wherein modifying at least one normalized percentage value of the at least one set of interrelated values results in automatically updating remaining normalized percentage values within the at least one set of interrelated values. ### Claim 11 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1, further comprising: determining whether the modified values have changed in a uniform manner based on a comparison with each modified value. ### Claim 12 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1, further comprising: ranking the modified total value in comparison with the original total value to determine an optimal forecast model. ### Claim 13 A non-transitory computer-readable medium containing instructions stored therein, which when executed by a machine cause the machine to perform operations comprising: receiving an original forecast model, the forecast model including a plurality of inputs; receiving a plurality of original input values for the plurality of inputs, wherein the plurality of original input values are of a different unit of measure from one another; converting each of the plurality of original input values to a common monetary input value based upon an associated cost to each of the original input values, wherein the common monetary input values are of a same unit of measure; determining an original total value based on a sum of the common monetary input values; converting each of the plurality of original input values to a normalized percentage value based upon a percentage of the original total value provided by the common monetary input value for each of the plurality of original input values; determining a modified total value based on a parameter applied to the original total value; and generating modified values for the plurality of inputs based upon applying each of the normalized percentage values to the modified total value. ### Claim 14 (depends on 13) The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 13, wherein the modified total value is different from the original total value by a predetermined percentage and a sum of the modified values is equal to the modified total value. ### Claim 15 (depends on 13) The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 13, wherein receiving the plurality of original input values further comprises specifying a period for determining the plurality of original input values. ### Claim 16 (depends on 13) The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 13, wherein determining the modified total value further comprises specifying a range of values for at least one parameter related to the plurality of inputs. ### Claim 17 (depends on 13) The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 13, wherein converting the plurality of original input values to a normalized percentage value further comprises modifying a parameter related to one of the normalized percentage values for the plurality of inputs. ### Claim 18 (depends on 17) The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 17 containing further instructions which when executed by the machine cause the machine to perform operations further comprising: determining an initial value for the parameter. ### Claim 19 (depends on 17) The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 17, wherein modifying the parameter is in response to determining whether the modified total value is below a specified threshold, the specified threshold being based on a relationship to the original total value. ### Claim 20 (depends on 17) The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 17, wherein modifying the parameter is in response to determining that an external factor has influenced the modified total value. ### Claim 21 (depends on 13) The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 13, wherein the normalized percentage values include at least one set of interrelated values. ### Claim 22 (depends on 21) The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 21, wherein modifying at least one normalized percentage value of the at least one set of interrelated values results in automatically updating remaining normalized percentage values within the at least one set of interrelated values. ### Claim 23 (depends on 13) The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 13 containing further instructions which when executed by the machine cause the machine to perform operations further comprising: determining whether the modified values have changed in a uniform manner based on a comparison with each modified value. ### Claim 24 (depends on 13) The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 13 containing further instructions which when executed by the machine cause the machine to perform operations further comprising: ranking the modified total value in comparison with the original total value to determine an optimal forecast model.