# US 8,788,247 B2 · System and method for analyzing effectiveness of distributing emergency supplies in the event of disasters > Agents: this data is available as JSON from the patentgrep API and MCP server — see https://patentgrep.com/llms.txt - Number: US 8,788,247 B2 - Document ID: US8788247B2 - Status: Granted - Kind: B2 - Application number: 12/194,993 - Filed: 2008-08-20 - Published: 2010-02-25 - Granted: 2014-07-22 - Earliest claimed: 2008-08-20 - Assignees: International Business Machines Corporation - Applicants: Young Min Lee - Inventors: Young Min Lee - Web page: https://patentgrep.com/patent/US8788247B2 ## CPC - G06F 30/20: Design optimisation, verification or simulation (optimisation, verification or simulation of circuit designs G06F30/30) - G06Q 10/08: Logistics, e.g. warehousing, loading or distribution; Inventory or stock management - G06Q 10/087: Inventory or stock management, e.g. order filling, procurement or balancing against orders - G06Q 10/0872: {using inventory planning} - G06F 2111/08: Probabilistic or stochastic CAD - G06N 7/01: Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks - G06Q 10/08726: {for replenishment processing, procedures, or recommendations using forecasting or optimisation} - G06Q 10/08744: {by distributed inventory management} - G06F: ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING (computer systems based on specific computational models G06N) - G06Q: INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR - G06N: COMPUTING ARRANGEMENTS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS ## Abstract A computer-implemented method and system in one embodiment estimate the effectiveness of a dispensing plan of emergency supplies during disasters or in like scenarios, by simulating a flow of emergency supplies in a multi-echelon supply chain, dynamics of victims and progression of disaster. The performance metrics estimated in one embodiment include, but not limited to, overall coverage of distribution, inventory of supplies (e.g., shortage and surplus) and utilization of resources (e.g., shortage and surplus). ## Claims ### Claim 1 A computer-implemented method for estimating effectiveness of a distribution or dispensing plan of emergency supplies during disaster events, comprising: simulating a flow of emergency supplies, including at least a flow of supplies from a source to a plurality of points in a supply chain then to one or more points of distribution, and at each point of the flow, availability of transportation fleet for moving the emergency supplies, transportation route and road conditions; simulating dynamics of victims, including an arrival pattern and surge of victims at the one or more points of distribution; simulating progression of disaster, including deteriorating of the road conditions; and simulating dynamic interactions among the flow of emergency supplies, the dynamics of victims and the progression of disaster, wherein the dynamic interactions comprise at least: retrieving data associated with when a disaster is launched in an area and how intense the disaster is, updated by the simulating of the progression of disaster, for use by the simulating of the dynamics of victims, retrieving data associated with activated point of distribution, updated by the simulating of the flow of emergency supplies, for use by the simulating of the dynamics of victims, wherein the simulating of the dynamics of victims is repeated using the retrieved data associated with when a disaster is launched in an area and how intense the disaster is, and the retrieved data associated with the activated point of distribution, the further simulated dynamics of the victims comprising movement of at least some the victims from one point of distribution to another point of distribution, retrieving data associated with the further simulated dynamics of the victims that is updated by the simulating of the dynamics of victims for use by the simulating of the flow of emergency supplies, wherein the simulating of the flow of emergency supplies is repeated; and determining overall effectiveness of a disaster response plan based on the data output from the dynamic interactions, wherein the overall effectiveness is determined by at least one of: analyzing a percentile of the victims covered over time, produced by the dynamic interactions, analyzing a size of demand at the one or more points of distribution and how fast the demand is satisfied over time, produced by the dynamic interactions, and analyzing utilization of transportation medium over time, produced by the dynamic interactions, wherein said steps of simulating are performed by a computer processor. ### Claim 2 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1, wherein the simulating the flow of emergency supplies comprises, simulating multi-echelon supply chain, pre-stocked supply quantity, availability of fleet, transportation route and time, road conditions, re-stocking policies, or combinations thereof. ### Claim 3 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1, further including simulating replenishment and cross-shipping as re-stocking policies in said simulating a flow of emergency supplies. ### Claim 4 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1, wherein the simulating dynamics of victims comprises simulating number of victims, arrival pattern and surge of victims, distribution and dispensing speed, POD activation, intensity of disaster, switching of point of distributions for victims, or combinations thereof. ### Claim 5 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1, wherein the simulating progression of disaster comprises simulating severity of disaster, trajectory of disaster, speed and duration of disaster, or combinations thereof. ### Claim 6 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1, further including estimating an evolution of one or more performance metrics. ### Claim 7 (depends on 6) The method of claim 6, wherein said one or more performance metrics comprise overall coverage of distribution, inventory of supplies, utilization of resources, demand profiles or combinations thereof. ### Claim 8 (depends on 7) The method of claim 7, wherein the inventory of supplies is measured according to shortage and surplus of emergency supplies. ### Claim 9 (depends on 7) The method of claim 7, wherein the utilization of resources is measured according to shortage and surplus of resources. ### Claim 10 A system for estimating effectiveness of a distribution and dispensing plan of emergency supplies during disaster events, comprising: a computer processor; a flow of emergency supplies simulator module executing on the computer processor and operable to simulate a flow of emergency supplies, including at least a flow of supplies from a source to a plurality of points in a supply chain then to one or more points of distribution, and at each point of the flow, availability of transportation fleet for moving the emergency supplies, transportation route and road conditions; a dynamics of victims simulator module executing on the computer processor and operable to simulate dynamics of victims, including an arrival pattern and surge of victims at the one or more points of distribution; and a progression of disaster simulator module executing on the computer processor and operable to simulate progression of disaster, including deteriorating of the road conditions; said flow of emergency supplies simulator module, said dynamics of victims simulator module and said progression of disaster simulator module further operable to dynamically interact with one another wherein the dynamically interacting comprise at least: retrieving data comprising when a disaster is launched in an area and how intense the disaster is, that is updated by the progression of disaster simulator module for use by the dynamics of victims simulator module, retrieving data comprising an activated point of distribution that is updated by the flow of emergency supplies simulator module for use by the dynamics of victims simulator module, wherein the dynamics of victims simulator module further simulates the dynamics of the victims based on the retrieved data comprising when a disaster is launched in an area and how intense the disaster is, and the retrieved data associated with the activated point of distribution, the further simulated dynamics of the victims comprising movement of at least some the victims from one point of distribution to another point of distribution, retrieving data associated with the further simulated dynamics of the victims that is updated by the dynamics of victims simulator module for use by the flow of emergency supplies simulator module, wherein the flow of emergency supplies simulator module further simulates the flow of emergency supplies; and wherein overall effectiveness of a disaster response plan is determined based on the data output from the dynamic interactions, wherein the overall effectiveness is determined by at least one of: analyzing a percentile of the victims covered over time, produced by the dynamically interacting, analyzing a size of demand at the one or more points of distribution and how fast the demand is satisfied over time, produced by the dynamically interacting, and analyzing utilization of transportation medium over time, produced by the dynamically interacting. ### Claim 11 (depends on 10) The system of claim 10, wherein the flow of emergency supplies simulator module simulates multi-echelon supply chain, pre-stocked supply quantity, availability of fleet, transportation route and time, road conditions, re-stocking policies, or combinations thereof. ### Claim 12 (depends on 10) The system of claim 10, wherein the flow of emergency supplies simulator module simulates replenishment and cross-shipping as re-stocking policies. ### Claim 13 (depends on 10) The system of claim 10, wherein the dynamics of victims simulator module simulates number of victims, arrival pattern and surge of victims, distribution and dispensing speed, POD activation, intensity of disaster, switching of PODs for victims, or combinations thereof. ### Claim 14 (depends on 10) The system of claim 10, wherein the progression of disaster simulator module simulates severity of disaster, trajectory of disaster, speed and duration of disaster or combinations thereof. ### Claim 15 (depends on 10) The system of claim 10, further including a performance metrics estimator module operable to estimate an evolution of one or more performance metrics resulting from simulation of flow of emergency supplies, dynamics of victims and progression of disaster. ### Claim 16 (depends on 15) The system of claim 15, wherein said one or more performance metrics comprise overall coverage of distribution, inventory of supplies, utilization of resources, demand profile or combinations thereof. ### Claim 17 A non-transitory program storage device readable by a machine, tangibly embodying a program of instructions executable by the machine to perform a method of estimating effectiveness of a dispensing plan of emergency supplies during disaster events, comprising: simulating a flow of emergency supplies, including at least a flow of supplies from a source to a plurality of points in a supply chain then to one or more points of distribution, and at each point of the flow, availability of transportation fleet for moving the emergency supplies, transportation route and road conditions; simulating dynamics of victims, including an arrival pattern and surge of victims at the one or more points of distribution; simulating progression of disaster, including deteriorating of the road conditions, said steps of simulating including dynamic interactions among flow of emergency supplies, dynamics of victims and progression of disaster, wherein the dynamic interactions comprise at least: retrieving data associated with when a disaster is launched in an area and how intense the disaster is, that is updated by the simulating of the progression of disaster for use by the simulating of the dynamics of victims, retrieving data associated with activated point of distribution updated by the simulating of the flow of emergency supplies for use by the simulating of the dynamics of victims, wherein the simulating of the dynamics of victims is repeated using the retrieved data associated with when a disaster is launched in an area and how intense the disaster is, and the retrieved data associated with the activated point of distribution, the further simulated dynamics of the victims comprising movement of at least some the victims from one point of distribution to another point of distribution, retrieving data associated with the further simulated dynamics of the victims that is updated by the simulating of the dynamics of victims for use by the simulating of the flow of emergency supplies, wherein the simulating of the flow of emergency supplies is repeated; and determining overall effectiveness of a disaster response plan based on the data output from the dynamic interactions, wherein the overall effectiveness is determined by at least one of: analyzing a percentile of the victims covered over time, produced by the dynamic interactions, analyzing a size of demand at the one or more points of distribution and how fast the demand is satisfied over time, produced by the dynamic interactions, and analyzing utilization of transportation medium over time, produced by the dynamic interactions. ### Claim 18 (depends on 17) The program storage device of claim 17, wherein the simulating the flow of emergency supplies comprises, simulating multi-echelon supply chain, pre-stocked supply quantity, availability of fleet, transportation route and time, road conditions, and re-stocking policies. ### Claim 19 (depends on 17) The program storage device of claim 17, wherein the simulating dynamics of victims further comprises, simulating number of victims, distribution and dispensing speed, POD activation, level of victim patience in waiting on line for the emergency supplies and switching of PODs for victims. ### Claim 20 (depends on 17) The program storage device of claim 17, wherein the simulating progression of disaster comprises simulating severity of disaster, trajectory of disaster, speed and duration of disaster or combinations thereof.