Effective hydrocarbon reservoir exploration decision making

A method for managing hydrocarbon exploration of a prospect, the method comprising:

• for each process iteration of a plurality of process iterations, performing a number of operations including:
• a) using a number of input parameters representing attributes of the prospect as input data to a risk-based probabilistic computer system, the risk-based probabilistic computer system generating estimates of probability-of-success and corresponding hydrocarbon volumes for the prospect as well as key performance indicators for the prospect in accordance with the input data;
• b) reviewing the key performance indicators generated in a) to identify at least one gap in knowledge of the prospect as well as identify recommended exploration activities that address each identified knowledge gap;
• c) performing one or more of the recommended exploration activities identified in b);
• d) reviewing results arising from performance of the recommended exploration activities in c) to identify additional knowledge gained from such performance;
• and
• e) updating the input parameters to reflect the additional knowledge identified in d) for a next process iteration of the plurality of process iterations;
• generating initial data defining an initial as-is characterization of the prospect;
• and
• using the initial data as at least a portion of the input data to said risk-based probabilistic computer system in a).