System and method for estimating forward retail commodity price within a geographic boundary

A non-transitory computer-readable medium storing program instructions executable by a processor to perform the steps comprising:

• determining a current retail price of a commodity for a specific location within a geographic boundary, wherein the current retail price of the commodity comprises a wholesale price component, a total markup component, and a tax component, and wherein the total markup component comprises a rack markup component and a retail markup component;
• subtracting an estimated total markup of the commodity for the specific location from an aggregated composite retail price of the commodity for the specific location to generate an estimated current wholesale price of the commodity for the specific location;
• and
• creating a forward market curve indicating forward retail price of the commodity for a corresponding period of time within the geographic boundary, wherein creating the forward market curve comprises:
• determining a rate of change between retail pricing and wholesale pricing for the commodity over a past period of time for each location within the geographic boundary on a monthly basis;
• forecasting future wholesale prices and estimated total markup for each location within the geographic boundary on a monthly basis;
• calculating an estimated forward retail price for each location within the geographic boundary on a monthly basis based on a plurality of factors, wherein the plurality of factors includes the current retail price of the commodity, the estimated current wholesale price of the commodity, and the rate of change;
• and
• aggregating the estimated forward retail price, location by location, within the geographic boundary on a monthly basis.

A system comprising:

• a processor;
• and
• a non-transitory computer-readable medium, communicatively coupled to the processor, storing program instructions executable by the processor to perform the steps comprising:
• determining a current retail price of a commodity for a specific location within a geographic boundary, wherein the current retail price of the commodity comprises a wholesale price component, a total markup component, and a tax component, and wherein the total markup component comprises a rack markup component and a retail markup component;
• subtracting an estimated total markup of the commodity for the specific location from an aggregated composite retail price of the commodity for the specific location to generate an estimated current wholesale price of the commodity for the specific location;
• and
• creating a forward market curve indicating forward retail price of the commodity for a corresponding period of time within the geographic boundary, wherein creating the forward market curve comprises:
• determining a rate of change between retail pricing and wholesale pricing for the commodity over a past period of time for each location within the geographic boundary on a monthly basis;
• forecasting future wholesale prices and estimated total markup for each location within the geographic boundary on a monthly basis;
• calculating an estimated forward retail price for each location within the geographic boundary on a monthly basis based on a plurality of factors, wherein the plurality of factors includes the current retail price of the commodity, the estimated current wholesale price of the commodity, and the rate of change;
• and
• aggregating the estimated forward retail price, location by location, within the geographic boundary on a monthly basis.