# US 7,752,020 B2 · System and method for modeling construction risk using location-based construction planning models > Agents: this data is available as JSON from the patentgrep API and MCP server — see https://patentgrep.com/llms.txt - Number: US 7,752,020 B2 - Document ID: US7752020B2 - Status: Granted - Kind: B2 - Application number: 11/502,690 - Filed: 2006-08-11 - Published: 2008-05-29 - Granted: 2010-07-06 - Earliest claimed: 2006-08-11 - Assignees: Vico Software Kft. - Inventors: Olli Pentti Petteri Seppanen; Ilkka Pentti Samuli Pelkonen; Tim Marec Wessman - Web page: https://patentgrep.com/patent/US7752020B2 ## CPC - G06Q 10/06: Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling - G06Q: INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR ## Abstract A method for modeling construction risk is provided. The method includes providing a statistical model for each of a plurality of location-based tasks of a construction project model. A model parameter is randomly selected for each of the plurality of statistical models to generate a statistically-based duration for each of the location-based tasks. A schedule duration is then calculated using the statistically-based durations of the location-based tasks, and the steps of providing, randomly selecting, and calculating are repeated until a statistical distribution for the construction project model is generated, such as using a Monte Carlo analysis procedure. ## Claims ### Claim 1 A method for modeling construction risk comprising: providing a statistical model for each of a plurality of location-based tasks of a construction project model, wherein one of a plurality of work crews performs an associated one of each of the plurality of location-based tasks, wherein one of a plurality of first statistical models is related to a corresponding one of the plurality of work crews, and one of a plurality of second statistical models is related to a corresponding one location variable of each location-based task; randomly selecting a model parameter for each of the plurality of first statistical models and each of the plurality of second statistical models to generate a statistically-based duration for each of the location-based tasks; calculating a schedule duration based on the statistically-based durations of the location-based tasks; and repeating the steps of providing, randomly selecting, and calculating until a statistical distribution for the construction project model is generated. ### Claim 2 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1 wherein calculating a schedule duration comprises setting a start date for a location-based task equal to the maximum of the group comprising a start date distribution and an earliest start date defined by preceding activities. ### Claim 3 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1 wherein calculating a schedule duration comprises determining a duration for a task by determining when a time integral of a total productivity function equals an amount of work required to complete the task. ### Claim 4 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1 wherein calculating a schedule duration comprises adding a delay to a start time for a task if a resource has left a job site associated with the task. ### Claim 5 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1 wherein calculating a schedule duration comprises adding a delay to a finish time for a task based on weather data. ### Claim 6 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1 wherein calculating a schedule duration comprises adding a delay to a finish time for a task based on modification of resources required for the task. ### Claim 7 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1 wherein calculating a schedule duration comprises adding a delay to a finish time for a task based on modification of productivity rates for workers performing the task. ### Claim 8 (depends on 1) The method of claim 1 wherein calculating a schedule duration comprises adding a delay to a finish time for a task based on rework required due to poor quality of workmanship for the task. ### Claim 9 A system for modeling construction risk comprising: A construction task modeling system configured to store a model having one or more parameters for each of a plurality of location-based tasks and a plurality of work crews, wherein one of the plurality of works crews performs an associated one of each of the plurality of location-based tasks, wherein one of a plurality of first statistical models is related to a corresponding one of the plurality of work crews, and one of a plurality of second statistical models is related to a corresponding one location variable of each location-based task; A production risk system configured to store one or more risk models configured to generate a value for each of the one or more parameters of the plurally of location-based tasks and the plurality of work crews based on an input using one or more of the first statistical models and the second statistical models; and A Monte Carlo simulation system configured to iteratively randomly select a model parameter for the first statistical models and the second statistical models to generate a statistically-based duration for each of the location-based tasks. ### Claim 10 (depends on 9) The system of claim 9 wherein the production risk system includes a weather risk modeling system generating a value for one or more parameters based on an affect of weather on the parameter. ### Claim 11 (depends on 9) The system of claim 9 wherein the production risk system includes a prerequisite risk modeling system generating a value for one or more parameters based on an affect of a prerequisite on the parameter. ### Claim 12 (depends on 9) The system of claim 9 wherein the production risk system includes a resource modification risk system generating a value for one or more parameters based on an affect of a modification of one or more resource on the parameter. ### Claim 13 (depends on 9) The system of claim 9 wherein the production risk system includes a productivity rate risk system generating a value for one or more parameters based on an affect of a productivity rate on the parameter. ### Claim 14 (depends on 9) The system of claim 9 wherein the production risk system includes a material availability risk system generating a value for one or more parameters based on an affect of an availability of a material on the parameter. ### Claim 15 (depends on 9) The system of claim 9 wherein the production risk system includes a resource availability risk system generating a value for one or more parameters based on an affect of an availability of a resource on the parameter. ### Claim 16 (depends on 9) The system of claim 9 wherein the production risk system includes a location risk modeling system generating a value for one or more parameters based on an affect of a location in which a task is performed on the parameter. ### Claim 17 (depends on 9) The system of claim 9 wherein the production risk system includes a quality risk modeling system generating a value for one or more parameters based on an affect of a quality of work for a task on the parameter. ### Claim 18 A system for modeling construction risk comprising: A construction task modeling system configured to store one or more parameters for each of a plurality of location-based tasks wherein one of a plurality of first statistical models is related to a corresponding one of each location-based task; A productivity rate risk system configured to store one or more parameters for each of a plurality of individual construction crews, wherein one of a plurality of second statistical models is related to a corresponding one of the plurality of construction crews; and A Monte Carlo simulation system configured to iteratively randomly select a parameter for the first statistical models and the second statistical models to generate a statistically-based duration for each of the location-based tasks. ### Claim 19 (depends on 18) The system of claim 18 further comprising a weather risk modeling system storing one or more parameters for an affect of weather on the individual construction crews. ### Claim 20 (depends on 18) The system of claim 18 further comprising a quality risk modeling system storing one or more parameters for a quality of work associated with one or more of the location-based tasks and with one or more of the individual construction crews.