Bayesian network triads for geologic and geophysical applications

A method for modeling a geologic or geophysical system to estimate values and associated uncertainties for a first set of geologic or geophysical variables describing said geologic or geophysical system, said method comprising:

• selecting a second set of geologic or geophysical system variables, said second set being directly or indirectly causally related to said first set of geologic or geophysical variables, wherein at least one of the second set of geologic or geophysical variables represents observed values of one of the first set of geologic or geophysical variables;
• obtaining or estimating data for each geologic or geophysical variable in the second set;
• appraising the quality of the geologic or geophysical data from the second set;
• forming a network with nodes comprising both sets of geologic or geophysical variables and said quality appraisals, having directional links connecting interdependent nodes, wherein network forming includes forming one or more risking triads, each risking triad having
• a first node representing an observed value of one of the first set of geologic or geophysical variables,
• a second node representing an actual value of the variable of the first node, and
• a third node representing the quality of the observed value of the variable of the first node,
• each of the second and third nodes each being connected to the first node by a link indicating that the second and third nodes cause the first node;
• and
• using a Bayesian Network algorithm with said geologic or geophysical data and quality information to solve the network for said first set of geologic or geophysical variables and their associated uncertainties.