Statistical-deterministic approach to natural disaster prediction

A computer readable medium encoded with a plurality for instructions adapted to be executed on at least one processor to:

• synthesize a time series of environmental wind corresponding to multiple atmospheric levels constrained by climate data;
• statistically synthesize a plurality of storm tracks that pass within a specified region;
• for each storm track of the plurality of synthesized tracks
• (a) determine environmental wind along the storm track from the synthesized time series of environmental wind,
• (b) determine storm intensity along the storm track by applying a deterministic simulation using environmental data as an input, the environmental data including the determined environmental wind along the storm track, and
• (c) determining an output representative of storm wind along the storm track;
• and
• use the determined outputs representative of the storm winds to estimate an overall storm wind probability distribution from a combination of the storm wind along the synthesized tracks that passes within the specified region.

A method of generating a data set corresponding to a probabilistic wind speed distribution within a specified region using a computer processor, the method comprising:

• synthesizing a time series of environmental wind corresponding to multiple atmospheric levels constrained by climate data;
• statistically synthesizing a plurality of storm tracks that pass within the specified region;
• for each storm track of the plurality of synthesized tracks
• (a) determining environmental wind along the storm track from the synthesized time series of environmental wind,
• (b) determining, using the computer processor, storm intensity along the storm track by applying a deterministic simulation using environmental data as an input, the environmental data including the determined environmental wind along the storm track, and
• (c) determining an output representative of storm wind along the storm track from the determined storm intensity along the track;
• and
• producing the data set by combining the outputs representative of storm wind for the synthesized storm tracks that pass within the specified region.

A method of estimating long-term risk associated with wind speed within an area of interest using a computer processor, the method comprising:

• synthesizing a time series of environmental wind corresponding to multiple atmospheric levels constrained by climate data;
• statistically synthesizing a plurality of storm tracks that pass within the area of interest;
• for each storm track of the plurality of synthesized tracks
• (a) determining environmental wind along the storm track from the synthesized time series of environmental wind,
• (b) determining, using the computer processor, storm intensity along the storm track by applying a deterministic simulation using environmental data as an input, the environmental data including the determined environmental wind along the storm track, and
• (c) determining an output representative of total wind from parametric or modeled storm wind and an environmental wind along the storm track using the determined storm intensity along the track;
• generating a probabilistically weighted combination of the total wind along each track to create a probabilistic total wind distribution within the area of interest;
• and
• estimating a risk of wind speed within the area of interest exceeding a predetermined threshold value based on the probabilistic total wind distribution.