Systems, methods and computer program products for determining a learning curve value and modeling associated profitability and costs of a good

An apparatus comprising:

• a processor configured to generate a model of recurring costs to produce a good as a function of potential learning curve values, the model of recurring costs being generated in part from a cost sensitivity probability distribution of a manufacturer producing a unit of the good at a predetermined cost, wherein the model of recurring costs reflects a relationship between recurring costs to produce a good in a market including a number of units of the good, and the potential learning curve values, each potential learning curve value reflecting variation in the recurring costs of the good with the number of units produced,
• wherein the processor is configured to generate a model of nonrecurring costs to produce the good as a function of the potential learning curve values, the model of nonrecurring costs being generated in part from a risk probability distribution of a measure of uncertainty associated with nonrecurring costs to produce the good, wherein the model of nonrecurring costs reflects a relationship between nonrecurring costs to produce the good, and the potential learning curve values, wherein the processor being configured to generate a model of nonrecurring costs includes being configured to determine a relationship between nonrecurring costs and potential learning curve values, select an uncertainty value from the risk probability distribution, and generate the model of nonrecurring costs from the relationship between nonrecurring costs and potential learning curve values, and the uncertainty value,
• wherein the processor is configured to generate, from the models of recurring and nonrecurring costs, a model of profitability as a function of the potential learning curve values, the model of profitability reflecting a relationship between profitability of the good and the potential learning curve values, and
• wherein the processor is configured to determine a learning curve value from the model of profitability, wherein the processor is configured to determine the learning curve value such that the profitability is maximized over the potential learning curve values.

A computer program product comprising a computer-readable storage medium having computer-readable program code portions stored therein, the computer-readable program portions comprising:

• a first executable portion configured to generate a model of recurring costs to produce a good as a function of potential learning curve values, the model of recurring costs being generated in part from a cost sensitivity probability distribution of a manufacturer producing a unit of the good at a predetermined cost, wherein the model of recurring costs reflects a relationship between recurring costs to produce a good in a market including a number of units of the good, and the potential learning curve values, each potential learning curve value reflecting variation in the recurring costs of the good with the number of units produced;
• a second executable portion configured to generate a model of nonrecurring costs to produce the good as a function of the potential learning curve values, the model of nonrecurring costs being generated in part from a risk probability distribution of a measure of uncertainty associated with nonrecurring costs to produce the good, wherein the model of nonrecurring costs reflects a relationship between nonrecurring costs to produce the good, and the potential learning curve values, and wherein the second executable portion being configured to generate a model of nonrecurring costs includes being configured to determine a relationship between nonrecurring costs and potential learning curve values, select an uncertainty value from the risk probability distribution, and generate the model of nonrecurring costs from the relationship between nonrecurring costs and potential learning curve values, and the uncertainty value;
• a third executable portion configured to generate, from the models of recurring and nonrecurring costs, a model of profitability as a function of the potential learning curve values, the model of profitability reflecting a relationship between profitability of the good and the potential learning curve values;
• and
• a fourth executable portion configured to determine a learning curve value from the model of profitability, wherein the first executable portion determines the learning curve value such that the profitability is maximized over the potential learning curve values.