Modifying advertisement scores based on advertisement response probabilities

In a network environment that includes at least an advertisement computer system, a method for modifying advertisement scores based on advertisement response probabilities and targeting advertisements to users based on a probability that a user will respond to possible advertisements, comprising the following:

• receiving a request to display a page of web content to a recipient, the page of web content including an advertisement portion which is dynamically variable to include advertising content selected based at least in part on a probability that the recipient will respond to a selected advertisement;
• accessing a plurality of possible advertisements available for selection to be inserted into the advertisement portion;
• receiving a base score for each of the plurality of possible advertisements;
• receiving a probability prediction model for each of the plurality of possible advertisements, such that each of the plurality of possible advertisements has a different corresponding probability prediction model, and wherein the probability prediction model for each of the plurality of possible advertisements includes a plurality of response probabilities;
• for each of the plurality of possible advertisements, selecting one of the plurality of response probabilities included in the corresponding probability prediction model;
• calculating an average response probability, wherein the average response probability is based on each of the plurality of response probabilities from each of the different probability prediction models;
• and
• for the plurality of possible advertisements, altering the base score of the corresponding possible advertisements based on an amount by which the selected response probability for each respective possible advertisement deviates from the average response probability, wherein altering the base score for each possible advertisement comprises:
• applying a first multiplicative factor to all base scores corresponding to the possible advertisements having a selected response probability greater than the average response probability plus a predetermined number of standard deviations of the selected response probabilities, wherein applying the first multiplicative factor increases the corresponding scores;
• and
• applying a second multiplicative factor to all base scores corresponding to the possible advertisements having a selected response probability less than the average response probability minus the predetermined number of standard deviations of the selected response probabilities, wherein the second multiplicative factor decreases the corresponding scores.