Early prognosis of the reliability of a technical system

A method for determining prognosis figures related to reliability of a technical system having a processor on which a program runs, the prognosis figures being determined for every data record of a plurality of data records, the method comprising:

• determining an analysis and/or design prognosis figure which describes an expected effort required to produce the program, the analysis and/or design prognosis figure being determined in a metric for the analysis and/or the design phase of production;
• determining an implementation prognosis figure which describes the expected effort required to produce the program, the implementation prognosis figure being determined from the analysis and/or design prognosis figure and being determined in a metric for the implementation phase of production;
• and
• determining a reliability prognosis figure which describes an expected reliability of the program, the reliability prognosis figure being determined from the implementation prognosis figure;
• and
• determining significant prognosis figures by determining models that include prognosis figures as variables, where one of the models includes the significant prognosis figures wherein
• the reliability prognosis figure is determined in a metric, which is different from the metric for the implementation phase of production and different from the metric for the analysis and/or design phase of production, and
• the reliability prognosis figure is displayed and/or stored.

A method for predicting, whether a specified reliability target for a technical system, which has a processor on which a program runs, will be met, comprising:

• determining prognosis figures by a method comprising:
• determining an analysis and/or design prognosis figure which describes an expected effort required to produce the program, the analysis and/or design prognosis figure being determined in a metric for the analysis and/or the design phase of production;
• determining an implementation prognosis figure which describes the expected effort required to produce the program, the implementation prognosis figure being determined from the analysis and/or design prognosis figure and being determined in a metric for the implementation phase of production;
• and
• determining a reliability prognosis figure which describes an expected reliability of the program, the reliability prognosis figure being determined from the implementation prognosis figure;
• and
• using a model that includes prognosis figures as variables to predict whether the specified target will be met wherein
• the reliability prognosis figure is determined in a metric, which is different from the metric for the implementation phase of production and different from the metric for the analysis and/or design phase of production, and
• the reliability prognosis figure is displayed and/or stored.

A device for predicting the reliability of a technical system having a processor on which a program runs, comprising:

• an A/D unit to determine an analysis and/or design prognosis figure which describes an expected effort required to produce the program, the analysis and/or design prognosis figure being determined in a metric for the analysis and/or the design phase of production;
• an IPM unit to determine an implementation prognosis figure which describes the expected effort required to produce the program, the implementation prognosis figure being determined from the analysis and/or design prognosis figure and being determined in a metric for the implementation phase of production;
• and
• an RPF unit to determine a reliability prognosis figure which describes an expected reliability of the program, the reliability prognosis figure being determined from the implementation prognosis figure.

A computer readable medium storing a program for controlling a computer to perform a method for predicting reliability of a technical system having a processor on which a program runs, the method comprising:

• determining an analysis and/or design prognosis figure which describes an expected effort required to produce the program, the analysis and/or design prognosis figure being determined in a metric for the analysis and/or the design phase of production;
• determining an implementation prognosis figure which describes the expected effort required to produce the program, the implementation prognosis figure being determined from the analysis and/or design prognosis figure and being determined in a metric for the implementation phase of production;
• and
• determining a reliability prognosis figure which describes an expected reliability of the program, the reliability prognosis figure being determined from the implementation prognosis figure wherein
• the reliability prognosis figure is determined in a metric, which is different from the metric for the implementation phase of production and different from the metric for the analysis and/or design phase of production, and
• the reliability prognosis figure is displayed and/or stored.