Method and system for forecasting events and threats based on geospatial modeling

A method for forecasting the likelihood for occurrence of at least one event type using geospatial information, comprising the steps of:

• establishing a geospatial boundary and a grid containing a plurality of cells within said boundary;
• establishing at least one layer imposed upon the grid, the layer being indicative of geospatial characteristics of at least one variable of interest unrelated to past event type data for the at least one event type;
• identifying a first proximity measurement of a cell element for each cell to the variable of interest, and for indexing said first proximity measurement for each cell so as to establish a database of first proximity measurements unrelated to the event type;
• receiving geospatial information related to one or more past events of at least one event type, including location information for said one or more past events;
• identifying and indexing a second proximity measurement from the location information for each of said one or more events to the at least one variable of interest;
• deriving a signature pattern for said event type based upon the second proximity measurement;
• and
• determining a level of signature match between said derived signature pattern and at least one cell of said plurality of cells through comparison with said first proximity measurement of said at least one cell as stored in the database of first proximity measurements.

A system for forecasting the likelihood for occurrence of at least one threat type, comprising:

• a geospatial database storing boundary and layer information for a plurality of areas of interest, said layer information being indicative of geospatial characteristics of a plurality of variables of interest unrelated to past threat type data for the at least one threat type;
• a proximity engine for identifying and indexing first proximity measurements to each of said variables of interest for a plurality of cells within each area of interest;
• a signature derivation component for receiving geospatial information related to one or more past threats of at least one threat type, including location information for said one or more past events, and identifying and indexing a second proximity measurement from the location information for each of said one or more threats to the at least one variable of interest, and deriving a signature pattern for said threat type;
• and
• a threat forecasting component for determining a level of signature match between said derived signature pattern and at least one cell of said plurality of cells through comparison with said first proximity measurements, said threat forecasting component being capable of rendering a two-dimensional display of an area of interest associated with said plurality of cells, said display including a representation of said level of signature match.

A geospatial event forecasting engine, comprising:

• a boundary component for establishing first and second geospatial boundaries and a grid containing a plurality of cells within each of said boundaries;
• a layer component for establishing at least one layer imposed upon each grid, the layer being indicative of geospatial characteristics of at least one variable of interest;
• a proximity component for identifying a proximity measurement of a cell element for each cell of each arid to the variable of interest, and for indexing said proximity measurement for each cell of each grid;
• a signature derivation component for receiving geospatial information related to one or more past events of at least one event type within said first boundary, including location information for said one or more past events, said signature derivation component further identifying and indexing a proximity measurement from the location information for each of said one or more events to the at least one variable of interest within said first boundary, and deriving a signature pattern for said event type associated with said first boundary;
• an event likelihood determinant component for determining a level of signature match between said derived signature pattern and at least one cell of said plurality of cells in said first boundary through comparison with said proximity measurement for said first boundary;
• and
• a signature transfer component for applying said established signature from said first boundary to said indexed proximity measurements of said second boundary and determining a level of signature match between said established signature and at least one cell of said plurality of cells in said second boundary.