Trending system and method using monotonic regression

A method of trending performance in a mechanical system, the method comprising the steps of:

• a) receiving sensor data from the mechanical system;
• b) generating performance parameter estimates for the mechanical system from the received sensor data;
• and
• c) determining an estimated trend for the performance parameter through monotonic regression of the performance parameter estimates, wherein the estimated trend includes a filtered estimate of the performance parameter and a prediction of future performance parameters.

A program product embedded in a computer readable medium comprising:

• a) a trending program, the trending program including:
• a performance estimator, the performance estimator adapted to receive and generate performance parameter estimates for a mechanical system;
• and
• a predictive trending mechanism, the predictive trending mechanism adapted to receive the performance parameter estimates and determine an estimated trend for the performance parameters through monotonic regression of the performance parameter estimates, wherein the estimated trend determined by the predictive trending mechanism includes a filtered estimate of the performance parameter and a prediction of future performance parameters;
• and
• b) signal bearing media bearing said trending program.

An apparatus comprising:

• a) a processor;
• b) a memory coupled to the processor;
• c) a trending program residing in the memory and being executed by the processor, the trending program including:
• i) a performance estimator, the performance estimator adapted to receive sensor data and generate performance parameter estimates for the mechanical system;
• and
• ii) a predictive trending mechanism, the predictive trending mechanism adapted to receive the performance parameter estimates and determine an estimated trend for the performance parameters through monotonic regression of the performance parameter estimates, wherein the estimated trend determined by the predictive trending mechanism includes a filtered estimate of the performance parameter and a prediction of future performance parameters.