Method and system for determining a bounding region

A method for determining a bounding region within which a launched weapon will be located comprising:

• providing a data processing system with a course and speed of an ocean current flow field in which the weapon is launched;
• providing the data processing system with an ownship position at weapon launch, and a bearing and range to a desired aim point from the ownship position;
• processing the course and speed of the ocean current flow field, the bearing and range to determine the resultant speed of the launched weapon;
• processing the resultant speed of the launched weapon, the bearing and the course and speed of the ocean current flow field to determine a course of the launched weapon;
• processing the ownship position at weapon launch, the desired aim point and the resultant speed of the launched weapon to determine a weapon run time;
• providing the data processing system with a mathematical distribution of the uncertainty in the speed and course of the ocean current, the mathematical distribution having a distribution function;
• processing the mathematical distribution to generate a scatter region of possible coordinate positions at which a launched weapon could possibly be located;
• processing the distribution function and the desired aim point to determine a plurality of coordinate positions that define a bounding region;
• determining the accuracy of the bounding region by quantifying the possible coordinate positions of the scatter region that are within the bounding region;
• and
• displaying said bounding region and said scatter region on a graphical medium.