System and method for automatically predicting the timing and costs of service events in a life cycle of a product

An automated system for predicting the timing and costs of future service events in a life cycle of a product formed from a plurality of compartments, comprising:

• means for storing a plurality of service information and a plurality of performance information for the product;
• means for automatically analyzing the plurality of service information to determine a plurality of compartment failure information comprising compartment failure variables and compartment time-to-failure coefficients, wherein the analyzing means uses the plurality of compartment failure information to determine which compartment failure variables influence the timing of future service events and estimate time-to-failure distributions for the compartments;
• means for automatically performing a deterioration rate analysis that determines performance deterioration rate of the product from the plurality of service information and performance information, wherein the performing means comprises a statistical analysis script that relates a subset of the plurality of compartments of the product according to time, wherein the statistical analysis script generates an estimated deterioration rate curve for a subset of the plurality of compartments of the product, wherein the performing means further comprises means for transforming each estimate deterioration rate curve for a compartment to a performance life distribution;
• and
• means for automatically simulating a distribution of future service events in the life cycle of the product and predicting the costs of the service events according to the time-to-failure distributions and performance life distributions.

A method for automatically predicting the timing and costs of future service events in a life cycle of a product formed from a plurality of compartments, comprising:

• storing a plurality of service information and a plurality of performance information for the product;
• automatically analyzing the plurality of service information to determine a plurality of compartment failure information comprising compartment failure variables and compartment time-to-failure coefficients, wherein the analyzing uses the plurality of compartment failure information to determine which compartment failure variables influence the timing of future service events and estimate time-to-failure distributions for the plurality of compartments;
• automatically performing a deterioration rate analysis that determines performance deterioration rate of the product from the plurality of service information and performance information, wherein the performing comprises using a statistical analysis script that relates a subset of the plurality of compartments of the product according to time, wherein the statistical analysis script generates an estimated deterioration rate curve for a subset of the plurality of compartments of the product, wherein the performing a deterioration rate analysis further comprises transforming each estimated deterioration rate curve for a compartment to a performance life distribution;
• and
• automatically simulating a distribution of future service events in the life cycle of the product and predicting the costs of the service events according to the time-to-failure distributions and performance life distributions.

A computer-readable medium storing computer instructions for instructing a computer system to automatically predict the timing and costs of future service events in a life cycle of a product formed from a plurality of compartments, the computer instructions comprising:

• storing a plurality of service information and a plurality of performance information for the product;
• automatically analyzing the plurality of service information to determine a plurality of compartment failure information comprising compartment failure variables and compartment time-to-failure coefficients, wherein the analyzing instructions uses the plurality of compartment failure information to determine which compartment failure variables influence the timing of future service events and estimate time-to-failure distributions for the plurality of compartments;
• automatically performing a deterioration rate analysis that determines performance deterioration rate of the product from the plurality of service information and performance information, wherein the performing instructions comprise a statistical analysis script that relates a subset of the plurality of compartments of the product according to time, wherein the statistical analysis script a generates an estimated deterioration rate curve for a subset of the plurality of compartments of the product, wherein the performing instructions further comprise transforming instructions that transform each estimated deterioration rate curve to a performance life distribution;
• and
• automatically simulating a distribution of future service events in the life cycle of the product and predicting the costs of the service events according to the time-to-failure distribution and performance life distributions.