Method for estimating the traffic matrix of a communication network

A method for estimating a plurality of traffic counts, denominated OD counts, between individual node pairs of a packetized communication network, wherein:

• (i) the OD counts are to be derived from link counts measured at interfaces of packet-forwarding devices in the network, (ii) at least some of the link counts are aggregated over plural origin-destination node pairs, and (iii) there is a statistical model for the likelihood distributions of the OD counts, the model has a plurality of parameters, and said parameters include means of the OD counts;
• and the method comprises:
• a) obtaining a plurality of measured link counts;
• b) obtaining a routing scheme of the network that relates measured link counts to unknown OD counts;
• and
• c) urging a likelihood function of each of the parameters in the statistical model toward an optimal value, thereby to obtain a refined estimate of said parameters that is more optimal than an initial estimate thereof;
• wherein:
• said urging step as recited in (c) is performed at least once;
• and
• in at least one said urging step, the likelihood function being urged is a penalized likelihood function that depends on both a current time window of observed link counts and on a prior distribution of the parameters in the statistical model, and said penalized likelihood function is based on link counts observed in previous time windows.