Phenomenological orbital debris impact risk assessment model and software

A method of assessing orbital impact risk, comprising:

• developing theory of multiple particles and collision interaction processes of the multiple particles,
• dividing low Earth orbit into plural environmental strata,
• developing plural environmental strata code for assessing environmental risk for different stratum in the plural environmental strata,
• providing deposition, removal and collision coefficients for different stratum of the plural environmental strata,
• developing protocol for modeling of solar cycles as manifested in atmospheric drag in the different stratum of the plural environmental strata,
• determining particles in elliptical orbits according to time spent in the different stratum,
• determining in each stratum number of objects in orbit and time rate chance of the number of objects in orbit,
• predicting and displaying chances of collisions according to time of insertions,
• providing outputs from breakup prediction models to a phenomenological module,
• providing inputs from environmental information,
• combining the provided inputs and outputs in a service module,
• providing a combined input, predicting future evolution and propagation of orbital objects from the combined input, and
• providing an output assessing future orbital impact risk.

Apparatus for assessing orbital collisions, comprising:

• a processor,
• code for developing theory of multiple particles and collision interaction processes of the multiple particles,
• an orbital modeling system in the processor for separating Earth orbits into plural environmental strata,
• inputs connected to the processor for inputting existing environment of known objects in a stratum, launches per year, average number and sizes of objects per launch, numbers of objects resulting from in orbit fragmentations, and fractions of objects remaining in a stratum for a year,
• means for dividing low Earth orbit into the plural environmental strata,
• means for developing plural environmental strata code for assessing environmental risk for different stratum in the plural environmental strata,
• means for providing deposition, removal and collision coefficients for different stratum of the plural environmental strata,
• protocol for developing modeling of solar cycles as manifested in atmospheric drag in the different stratum of the plural environmental strata,
• means for determining particles in elliptical orbits according to time spent in the different stratum,
• means for determining in each stratum number of objects in orbit and time rate chance of the number of objects in orbit, and
• means for predicting and displaying chances of collisions according to time of insertions,
• inputs connected to the processor for inputting output format choices,
• phenomenological module inputs to the processor for inputting phenomenology in stratum output results of collision breakup models, explosion breakup models and drag and solar effect models,
• a service module connected to the system for interrelating the inputs,
• an evaluation propagation module connected to the service module for predicting orbital collisions according to inputs from the service module, and
• an out connected to the evaluation propagation module for outputting graphic and tabular results of the assessing orbital collisions.