Method and apparatus for updating records in a database system based on an improved model of time-dependent behavior

An apparatus for updating a record in a database system in conjunction with one or more transactions involving at least a portion of the record, the apparatus comprising:

• a memory for storing at least a portion of the record;
• and
• a processor coupled to the memory and operative to determine a record affected by a given one of the transactions;
• to retrieve a current version of the record from a memory of the system;
• to estimate at least one of a transaction rate and a period probability for the record using an event-driven estimator based at least in part on application of at least a portion of a stochastic model of time-dependent behavior to the current version of the record, the model having associated therewith a plurality of periods and a number of period-based transaction rates;
• and to generate an updated version of the record based on the event-driven estimator.

An article of manufacture comprising a machine-readable storage medium for storing one or more programs for use in updating a record in a database system in conjunction with one or more transactions involving at least a portion of the record, wherein the one or more programs when executed implement the steps of:

• determining a record affected by a given one of the transactions;
• retrieving a current version of the record from a memory of the system;
• estimating at least one of a transaction rate and a period probability for the record using an event-driven estimator based at least in part on application of at least a portion of a stochastic model of time-dependent behavior to the current version of the record, the model having associated therewith a plurality of periods and a number of period-based transaction rates;
• and
• generating an updated version of the record based on the event-driven estimator.