Method for recognizing disruptions in road traffic

A method for recognizing a disruption in traffic of vehicles travelling in a road sector of a road that has a certain road sector length, wherein a beginning traffic sensor is arranged at a beginning measurement cross-section at a beginning of said sector and an end traffic sensor is arranged at an end measurement cross-section at an end of said sector,

• said method comprising, in a plurality of successive finite measurement time intervals:
• (a) using a signal provided by said beginning traffic sensor, determining an average beginning vehicle speed and an average beginning traffic flow of vehicles passing said beginning measurement cross-section, averaged over a respective present one of said time intervals;
• (b) calculating a prognosis value of an expected end traffic flow of vehicles passing said end measurement cross-section during said respective present time interval, from said average beginning vehicle speed, said average beginning traffic flow, said road sector length, an assumed time distribution of vehicles in said respective present time interval, and an assumed progression of speed of vehicles while travelling through said road sector, comprising:
• (b1) determining an expected transit time, from said road sector length, said average beginning vehicle speed, and said assumed progression of speed,
• (b2) from said expected transit time, identifying particular one or ones of said successive measurement time intervals during which vehicles sensed by said beginning traffic sensor during said respective present time interval will pass said end measurement cross-section,
• (b3) determining proportion factors for apportioning said average beginning traffic flow to said particular one or ones of said time intervals identified in said step (b2), and
• (b4) calculating said prognosis value for said respective present time interval by multiplying said proportion factors with corresponding ones of said average beginning traffic flow for said particular one or ones of said time intervals identified in said step (b2), to provide expected traffic flow products, and then summing said expected traffic flow products over said respective present time interval and all previous ones of said time intervals;
• (c) using a signal provided by said end traffic sensor, determining an average end traffic flow of vehicles passing said end measurement cross-section, averaged over said respective present time interval;
• (d) determining a respective traffic flow difference value by comparing said prognosis value and said average end traffic flow;
• (e) summing said respective traffic flow difference value as determined for said respective present time interval and for all previous ones of said time intervals to determine an excess number of vehicles remaining in said road sector;
• (f) triggering a traffic disruption message if said excess number of vehicles remaining in said road sector exceeds a threshold value;
• and
• (g) repeating said steps (a) to (f) for each of said successive time intervals.