Atmosphere-land-reservoir-river integrated medium-to-long-term chained-process runoff forecasting method

An atmosphere-land-reservoir-river integrated medium-to-long-term chained-process runoff forecasting method, comprising:

• S1:
• selecting a study area, determining control sections and controlling reservoirs, and acquiring and organizing long-series historical meteorological and hydrological data:
• meteorological data of the control sections:
• Af={a1, a2, a3, . . . , ai, . . . , aN};
• hydrological data of the control sections:
• Hf={h1, h2, h3, . . . ,hi, . . . ,hN};
• meteorological data of the controlling reservoirs:
• Ar={b1, b2, b3, . . . , bj, . . . , bM};
• and
• hydrological data of the controlling reservoirs:
• Hr{l1, l2, l3, . . . , lj, . . . , lM};
• wherein, Af denotes the meteorological data of the control sections;
• ai denotes the meteorological data of an i-th control section;
• Hf denotes the hydrological data of the control sections;
• hi denotes the hydrological data of the i-th control section;
• N denotes a number of the control sections;
• Ar denotes the meteorological data of the controlling reservoirs;
• bj denotes the meteorological data of a j-th controlling reservoir;
• Hr denotes the hydrological data of the controlling reservoirs;
• lj denotes the hydrological data of the j-th controlling reservoir;
• and M denotes a number of the controlling reservoirs;
• S2:
• establishing a rainfall, runoff generation, confluence, and routing integrated chained-process forecasting framework, and performing series calculations through a meteorological rainfall module R(r1, r2, . . . , rx), a land surface runoff generation module Q(R, S, Pa, M), a river channel confluence module M (Q, L, G, X), and a runoff routing module E(M, L, G, O, Y);
• wherein, R(r1, r2 . . . , rx) denotes a rainfall calculation equation, and rx denotes different factors affecting a rainfall value;
• Q(R, S, Pa, M) denotes a runoff generation calculation equation;
• R denotes the rainfall value;
• S denotes a catchment area of a basin;
• Pa denotes an antecedent precipitation index;
• and M denotes a runoff generation mode, comprising saturation excess runoff generation and infiltration excess runoff generation;
• M ((Q, L, G, X) denotes a confluence calculation equation;
• Q denotes a runoff generation value;
• L denotes a length of a confluence river channel;
• G denotes a slope of the confluence river channel;
• and X denotes a factor affecting confluence;
• and
• E(M, L, G, O, Y) denotes a routing calculation equation;
• M denotes a confluence value;
• O denotes a regulation and storage impact of reservoirs during a routing process;
• and Y denotes a factor affecting routing;
• S3:
• constructing a hybrid downscaling model R′ in the meteorological rainfall module, and performing medium-to-long-term rainfall forecasting in the study area;
• S4:
• performing, by taking a rainfall forecast as an input in the land surface runoff generation module, runoff generation calculations for control sections corresponding to different zones in the study area through a hydrological model, assuming Sm is an m-th zone of the study area, with a runoff yield of Qm=Γ(Sm), wherein Γ(Sm) denotes a runoff generation calculation equation for the m-th zone;
• S5:
• performing, by combining an isochrone method, a time-interval unit hydrograph method and an instantaneous unit hydrograph method, a river channel confluence calculation in the river channel confluence module to acquire discharge processes of different control sections;
• S6:
• performing, by a Muskingum method, a composite discharge method and a hydrodynamic method, a river channel routing calculation in the runoff routing module to acquire discharge processes of different control sections after river channel routing;
• S7:
• performing sequential routing calculations for each node from upstream to downstream according to a same time scale until runoff processes of the control sections at the same time scale are output;
• and
• S8:
• completing runoff process calculations for the study area at different time scales, comprising ten-day, monthly, seasonal, and annual.