Methods for optimising the atmospheric radiative forcing of aircraft flight operations on climate by forecasting and validating aircraft contrail formation

An apparatus for determining atmospheric radiative forcing by optimising or preventing contrail formation caused by an aircraft, the apparatus comprising a processing arrangement configured to:

• determine contrail forecast data and flight data, wherein the contrail forecast data includes a probability of contrail formation and persistency and a radiation budget of the atmospheric column, and wherein the flight data is determined based on a combination of flight trajectories, aircraft and engine type, and fuel consumption and combustion data;
• determine a tentative atmospheric radiative forcing quantity, along a tentative flight trajectory, based on the contrail forecast data and the flight data, wherein to determine the tentative atmospheric radiative forcing quantity, the processing arrangement is configured to:
• performing an initial check to determine whether thermodynamic criteria for contrail formation are satisfied;
• performing an initial prediction for a contrail if it is determined that the thermodynamic criteria for contrail formation are satisfied;
• evolving the initial prediction for the contrail over time based on one or more elements of weather data;
• and
• calculating radiative properties of the contrail, based on modelled values for outgoing long wave radiation, reflected solar radiation and/or direct solar radiation, to determine the tentative atmospheric radiative forcing quantity;
• and
• alter the one or more flight parameters to determine an optimised flight trajectory having an optimum atmospheric radiative forcing quantity, wherein the optimum atmospheric radiative forcing quantity is lesser than the tentative atmospheric radiative forcing quantity, and wherein the optimised flight trajectory is validated using an imagery data;
• and
• determine the atmospheric radiative forcing difference, based on the tentative atmospheric radiative forcing quantity and the optimum atmospheric radiative forcing quantity, to evaluate an offset value for at least one forcing parameter associated with the atmospheric radiative forcing difference.