Dynamic timetable management system and dynamic timetable management method and traffic solution system using dynamic timetable management system

A dynamic timetable management system generating a dynamic timetable reflecting an operation situation and a congestion prediction of a movable body in a line including a plurality of stops, the dynamic timetable management system comprising:

• a congestion information acquisition unit configured to acquire the congestion prediction;
• a probability operation prediction generation unit configured to generate, on a basis of the operation situation, a probability operation prediction in which at least one of a dwell time and a travel time included in the line is expressed as a probability distribution;
• and
• a dynamic timetable creation unit configured to create, on a basis of a rewritten time point set using the congestion prediction and the probability operation prediction, the dynamic timetable in which a time point of arrival at each of the stops and a time point of departure from each of the stops included in the line are rewritten, wherein
• the dynamic timetable creation unit is configured to calculate, on a basis of a congestion fluctuation rate that is calculated from the congestion prediction and fluctuates over time, a cumulative probability so that the cumulative probability relating to the dwell time becomes higher as the congestion fluctuation rate at each of the stops increases, and so that the cumulative probability relating to the travel time becomes lower as the congestion fluctuation rate in each of the movable bodies increases, and determine the rewritten time point using the calculated cumulative probability.

A dynamic timetable management method by a dynamic timetable management system generating a dynamic timetable reflecting an operation situation and a congestion prediction of a movable body in a line including a plurality of stops, the dynamic timetable management method comprising:

• acquiring the congestion prediction;
• generating, on a basis of the operation situation, a probability operation prediction in which at least one of a dwell time and a travel time included in the line is expressed as a probability distribution;
• and
• creating, on a basis of a rewritten time point set using the congestion prediction and the probability operation prediction, the dynamic timetable in which a time point of arrival at each of the stops and a time point of departure from each of the stops included in the line are rewritten, wherein
• the rewritten time point is determined using a cumulative probability calculated on a basis of the congestion prediction, and
• the cumulative probability is calculated on a basis of a congestion fluctuation rate that is calculated from the congestion prediction and fluctuates over time so that the cumulative probability relating to the dwell time becomes higher as the congestion fluctuation rate at each of the stops increases, and so that the cumulative probability relating to the travel time becomes lower as the congestion fluctuation rate in each of the movable bodies increases.

A traffic solution system using a dynamic timetable management system, wherein

• the dynamic timetable management system is configured to generate a dynamic timetable reflecting an operation situation and a congestion prediction of a movable body in a line including a plurality of stops,
• the dynamic timetable management system includes
• a congestion information acquisition unit configured to acquire the congestion prediction,
• a probability operation prediction generation unit configured to generate, on a basis of the operation situation, a probability operation prediction in which at least one of a dwell time and a travel time included in the line is expressed as a probability distribution,
• a dynamic timetable creation unit configured to create, on a basis of a rewritten time point set using the congestion prediction and the probability operation prediction, the dynamic timetable in which a time point of arrival at each of the stops and a time point of departure from each of the stops included in the line are rewritten, and
• a distribution unit configured to, when receiving a timetable distribution condition from the traffic solution system, distribute the dynamic timetable that matches the timetable distribution condition to the traffic solution system, and
• the dynamic timetable creation unit is configured to calculate, on a basis of a congestion fluctuation rate that is calculated from the congestion prediction and fluctuates over time, a cumulative probability so that the cumulative probability relating to the dwell time becomes higher as the congestion fluctuation rate at each of the stops increases, and so that the cumulative probability relating to the travel time becomes lower as the congestion fluctuation rate in each of the movable bodies increases, and determine the rewritten time point using the calculated cumulative probability.