Demand response events with load shape based on grouped devices

One or more computer storage media encoded with instructions that, when executed by one or more computers, cause the one or more computers to perform operations comprising:

• maintaining, in memory and for each thermostat group in a plurality of thermostat groups, a thermal model that a) represents an average thermal behavior of thermostats in the thermostat group, and b) includes a plurality of parameters that define a sigmoid-like function that maps changes in a difference between indoor temperature and temperature set point for the thermostat group to a relative power consumption of the thermostat group;
• providing, as input to a schedule optimizer, i) a target load constraint for multiple thermostat groups from the plurality of thermostat groups and ii) the thermal model for each of the plurality of thermostat groups and that includes the plurality of parameters;
• receiving, as output from the schedule optimizer and for each of two or more thermostat groups from the plurality of thermostat groups, a thermostat group schedule for one or more thermostats in the corresponding thermostat group;
• and
• in response to receiving the thermostat group schedule, transmitting, to each of the one or more thermostats, commands to cause the corresponding thermostat to execute the corresponding thermostat group schedule.

A system comprising one or more computers and one or more storage devices on which are stored instructions that are operable, when executed by the one or more computers, to cause the one or more computers to perform operations comprising:

• maintaining, in memory and for each thermostat group in a plurality of thermostat groups, a thermal model that a) represents an average thermal behavior of thermostats in the thermostat group, and b) includes a plurality of parameters that define a sigmoid-like function that maps changes in a difference between indoor temperature and temperature set point for the thermostat group to a relative power consumption of the thermostat group;
• providing, as input to a schedule optimizer, i) a target load constraint for multiple thermostat groups from the plurality of thermostat groups and ii) the thermal model for each of the plurality of thermostat groups and that includes the plurality of parameters;
• receiving, as output from the schedule optimizer and for each of two or more thermostat groups from the plurality of thermostat groups, a thermostat group schedule for one or more thermostats in the corresponding thermostat group;
• and
• in response to receiving the thermostat group schedule, transmitting, to each of the one or more thermostats, commands to cause the corresponding thermostat to execute the corresponding thermostat group schedule.