Method for evaluating probability of road collapse

A method for evaluating a probability of road collapse, comprising following steps:

• collecting road data information of a road to be analyzed, and obtaining road soil layer information and underground pipeline information respectively through the road data information;
• determining road soil layer deterioration factors of the road to be analyzed based on the road soil layer information;
• constructing a deterioration factor influence intensity model, and using the deterioration factor influence intensity model combined with the road soil layer information to obtain a probability of influence of the road soil layer deterioration factors, wherein the deterioration factor influence intensity model comprises an intensity model of a subterranean cavity influence factor, an intensity model of a seepage influence factor, and an intensity model of a non-soil layer impurity influence factor;
• the intensity model of the subterranean cavity influence factor, the intensity model of the seepage influence factor, and the intensity model of the non-soil layer impurity influence factor satisfy the following formulas:
• σ
• v
• =
• C
• v
• ×
• E
• ×
• v
• unit
• I
• Z
• ×
• d
• ×
• 2
• ⁢
• π
• ×
• e
• -
• x
• 2
• 2
• ⁢
• d
• 2
• ×
• (
• x
• 2
• d
• 2
• -
• 1
• )
• ,
• σ
• a
• =
• C
• a
• ×
• (
• γ
• ′
• ⁢
• Z
• a
• ∓
• γ
• a
• ⁢
• H
• a
• )
• ,
• σ
• e
• =
• C
• e
• ×
• E
• ×
• Δ
• ⁢
• Z
• e
• D
• e
• ×
• ξ
• e
• ×
• (
• 1
• -
• μ
• )
• 2
• ,
• wherein, σv represents an intensity of the subterranean cavity influence factor, Cv represents an empirical factor of deterioration of subterranean cavity factor, E represents the modulus corresponding to a deflection of an area to be analyzed, Vunit represents a volume of a subterranean cavity, d represents a width coefficient of the subterranean cavity, lz represents a longitudinal distance between an axis of the subterranean cavity and a ground surface, x represents a lateral distance between a testing point of underground soil layer and the axis of the subterranean cavity;
• σa represents an intensity of the seepage influence factor, Ca represents an empirical factor of deterioration of seepage factor, γ′ represents a floating capacity of a seepage layer, Za represents a distance between the seepage layer and the ground surface, γa represents specific weight of water, Ha represents a thickness of accumulated water in the seepage layer, σe represents an intensity of the non-soil layer impurity influence factor, Ce represents an empirical factor of deterioration of non-soil impurity factor, ΔZe represents a height difference of soil layer settlement around the non-soil impurities, De represents a width of the soil layer settlement around non-soil impurities, ξe represents the calculated length-width ratio parameter of non-soil impurities, μ represents the Poisson's ratio of soil layers around non-soil impurities, the probability of the influence of the road soil layer deterioration factors satisfies a following formula:
• P
• in
• =
• σ
• v
• +
• σ
• a
• +
• σ
• e
• [
• σ
• ]
• ,
• wherein Pin represents the probability of the influence of the road soil layer deterioration factors, σv represents the intensity of the subterranean cavity influence factor, σa represents the intensity of the seepage influence factor, σe represents the intensity of the non-soil layer impurity influence factor, and [σ] represents road standard bearing capacity;
• constructing an underground pipeline deterioration influence intensity model, and using the underground pipeline deterioration influence intensity model combined with the underground pipeline information to obtain a probability of the underground pipeline deterioration influence, wherein the underground pipeline deterioration influence intensity model satisfies the following formula:
• Q=CsγsZpipedpipe+CsγsZpipe2 cot θ+2CsτsZpipe csc θ, wherein Q represents an intensity of the underground pipeline deterioration influence, Cs represents an empirical factor of the underground pipeline deterioration influence, γs represents specific weight of surrounding soil layer, Zpipe represents a distance between an upper surface of an underground pipeline and the ground surface, dpipe represents a diameter of the underground pipeline, θ represents a friction angle between the underground pipeline and the surrounding soil layer, σs represents undrained shear intensity of soil layers around the underground pipeline;
• the probability of the underground pipeline deterioration influence satisfies the following formula:
• P
• out
• =
• Q
• [
• Q
• ]
• ,
• wherein Pout represents the probability of the underground pipeline deterioration influence, Q represents the intensity of the underground pipeline deterioration influence, and [Q] represents underground pipeline standard bearing capacity;
• summarizing the probability of the influence of the road soil layer deterioration factors and the probability of the underground pipeline deterioration influence, and then evaluating a probability of collapse of the road to be analyzed.