Methods and apparatuses for reporting anomalies and forecasting key performance indicator (kpi) measurements in a telecommunications node

A method for forecasting a plurality of expected measurements for a key performance indicator (KPI) in a telecommunications node, comprising:

• obtaining a measurement of the KPI of the telecommunication node;
• upon receiving the measurement of the KPI, updating coefficients of a polynomial function;
• based on the updated coefficients of the polynomial function, computing the plurality of expected measurements for the KPI, over a time-horizon;
• computing a confidence band for each of the plurality of expected measurements for the KPI, using accuracy measurements obtained from past predictions;
• and
• reporting the plurality of expected measurements and corresponding confidence bands for the KPI to a management system.

An apparatus operative to report an anomaly in a telecommunications node comprising processing circuits and a memory, the memory containing instructions executable by the processing circuits whereby the apparatus is operative to:

• obtain a measurement of a key performance indicator (KPI) of the telecommunication node;
• upon receiving the measurement of the KPI, update coefficients of a polynomial function;
• based on the updated coefficients of the polynomial function, compute an expected measurement of the KPI coefficient;
• compute a confidence band for the expected measurement of the KPI;
• and
• report the anomaly when the measurement of the KPI is outside of the confidence band.

An apparatus operative to forecast a plurality of expected measurements for a key performance indicator (KPI) in a telecommunications node comprising processing circuits and a memory, the memory containing instructions executable by the processing circuits whereby the apparatus is operative to:

• obtain a measurement of the KPI of the telecommunication node;
• upon receiving the measurement of the KPI, update coefficients of a polynomial function;
• based on the updated coefficients of the polynomial function, compute the plurality of expected measurements for the KPI, over a time-horizon;
• compute a confidence band for each of the plurality of expected measurements for the KPI, using accuracy measurements obtained from past predictions;
• and
• report the plurality of expected measurements and corresponding confidence bands for the KPI to a management system.