A system for forecasting processing times adopted in a manufacturing firm which works on order, which is a real system (300), which transforms acquired job-orders in executed job-orders;
- and said system for forecasting processing times comprises a mathematical model of identification (101) implemented in a digital subsystem, which comprises computing means and memory units;
- and said mathematical model of identification (101) comprises a training data set;
- and in occasion of any acquisition of a new job-order (201), which occurs at a generic time “Tacc”, it stores the following information:
- a. an informatic representation (212) of all the job-orders that, at said generic time “Tacc”, are already acquired by said manufacturing firm, and are scheduled but not executed, wherein said acquired job-orders are represented subdivided into operational jobs, and said operational jobs are represented by information regarding their time scheduling and information also regarding the work centers of said manufacturing firm to which said operational jobs are assigned to be executed;
- b. a new informatic representation (211) of said new job-order (201), acquired at said generic time “Tacc”, wherein said new informatic representation (211) of said new job-order (201) as it results after the scheduling of said new job-order (201), and said new informatic representation (211) is again represented subdivided into operational jobs, and said operational jobs are represented by information regarding their time scheduling and information also regarding the work centers of said manufacturing firm to which said operational jobs are assigned to be executed;
- c. an informatic representation (222) of all the job-orders acquired by said manufacturing firm, at the time when also said new job-order (201) has been scheduled to be executed, wherein said acquired job-orders are represented subdivided into operational jobs, and said operational jobs are represented by information regarding their time scheduling and information also regarding the work centers to which said operational jobs are assigned to be executed;
- d. an informatic representation of all the job-orders executed (232) by said manufacturing firm, in which the informatic representation of each single executed job-order (331) is represented subdivided into its operational jobs, and said operational jobs are also represented by information that states the actual moments in which said operational jobs really have started and ended, and information also regarding the work centers that have actually executed out said operational jobs;
- and said digital subsystem is characterized in that:
- it is also configured to calculate and produce said training data set suitable to train said mathematical model of identification (101) in order to make it the informatic image of said manufacturing firm that work on order, which is a real system (300), which transforms the information regarding any scheduled operational job (as explained in the preceding points “a”, “b” and “c”) into the information regarding this operational job when it has been actually executed (as explained in the preceding point “d”);
- said training data set contains a plurality of samples, in which each of said samples is associated with a single operational job belonging to an executed job-order, and each sample is in turn constituted by an input vector (240) and by an output vector (340);
- and said input vector (240) is structured to contain at least the following information regarding the single operational job associated with the considered sample:
- in a first sub-vector (241) there are values regarding the initial and final times expected at the time of the first scheduling following the acquisition of the corresponding job-order, and a value indicating the first work center assigned,
- in a second sub-vector (242) there are values attributable to the information regarding the length of the job-order as a whole, both in terms of time duration and in terms of the number of distinct operational jobs which compose it, and values indicating the position of said operational job with respect to the other operational jobs of the same job-order,
- in a third sub-vector (243) there are values calculated from the informatic representation of the other planned job-orders (212) at the time of the acquisition of the considered job order (201);
- and said output vector (340) is structured to contain at least the following information regarding the single operational job associated with the considered sample:
- a first value (341), which can also be alternatively expressed as a sub-vector, contains the information relating to the deviation of the real initial time, with respect to the initial time foreseen in the planning stage, of the operational job associated with the corresponding input vector (240),
- a second value (342), which can also be alternatively expressed as a sub-vector, contains the information relating to the deviation of the real final time, with respect to the final time foreseen in planning, of the operational job associated with the corresponding input vector (240),
- a third value (343) indicates the possibility that the actual operational job associated with the corresponding input vector (240), was performed by a work center other than the planned work center.