Device and method for predicting a path taken by a vehicle for a transport task

A method for predicting a path taken by a vehicle for a transport task comprising:

• obtaining training data comprising a multiplicity of training data elements, wherein each training data element specifies a path taken in a location network;
• representing a set of valid paths as a Boolean formula operating on a set of variables, wherein each location of the location network is represented by a variable of the set of variables and the output of the Boolean formula for an assignment of values to the variables outputs whether the assignment of values to the variables represents a valid path through the road network;
• converting the Boolean formula into an ordered binary decision diagram augmented with conjunction nodes comprising, for each variable of the set of variables, a decision node representing the variable, wherein the decision node has, for each assignment of a value to the variable represented by the decision node, an outgoing edge associated with the value;
• augmenting each outgoing edge of each decision node with a probability depending on the number of times the location represented by the decision node was visited in the paths specified by the training data elements;
• and
• predicting a path for a given transport task by sampling an assignment of values to the variables by traversing the ordered binary decision diagram augmented with conjunction nodes wherein at each decision node, an assignment of a value to the variable represented by the decision node is selected with the probability of the outgoing edge associated with the value if the assignment of the value to the variable leads to a valid path which is in line with the transport task.