Building system with equipment reliability modeling and proactive control

One or more non-transitory computer-readable media storing program instructions that, when executed by one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising:

• generating a first service recommendation for a subsystem based on data-driven modeling of subsystem failure probability;
• generating a second service recommendation for the subsystem using a predefined service schedule based on age of equipment of the subsystem;
• and
• providing a combined output based on the first service recommendation and the second service recommendation.

A building equipment system, comprising:

• a subsystem comprising a plurality of components;
• one or more processors;
• and
• one or more non-transitory computer readable media storing program instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising:
• providing a plurality of reliability models that model failure probabilities of the plurality of components as functions of runtime;
• determining a probability of failure of the subsystem at a time step based on the reliability models for the components;
• and
• generating an output to influence operation of the subsystem based on the probability of failure of the subsystem.