System, Method, and Computer Program Product for Generating a Synthetic Control Group

A system comprising a server comprising at least one processor, the server being programmed and/or configured to:

• after at least one holder of at least one transaction account of a plurality of transaction accounts is exposed to at least one communication, receive transaction data associated with at least one transaction completed by a first set of transaction accounts of the plurality of transaction accounts with at least one target merchant in a first time period, the transaction data generated by a transaction service provider system from processing the at least one transaction;
• generate a synthetic control group comprising a subset of transaction accounts sampled from the first set of transaction accounts;
• determine, for each transaction account of the synthetic control group, a propensity score representative of a likelihood of said transaction account being associated with a test group using a first machine learning model, wherein holders of transaction accounts in the test group were exposed to the at least one communication;
• determine, for each transaction account of the synthetic control group, a predictive spending score for the second time period using a second machine learning model;
• balance the synthetic control group, wherein, while balancing the synthetic control group, the server is programmed and/or configured to:
• assign an entropy balancing weight to each transaction account of the synthetic control group based at least partly on historic transaction data, the propensity score of each transaction account of the synthetic control group, and the predictive spending score of each transaction account of the synthetic control group;
• alter at least one operational parameter of a computer-implemented advertisement program to be executed in a second time period based on the transaction data and the synthetic control group;
• and
• execute the computer-implemented advertisement program in the second time period based on the at least one operational parameter that was altered, wherein, while executing the computer-implemented advertisement program, the server is programmed and/or configured to:
• allocate computing resources based on the at least one operational parameter that was altered.

A computer program product comprising at least one non-transitory computer-readable medium including program instructions that, when executed by at least one processor, cause the at least one processor to:

• after at least one holder of at least one transaction account of a plurality of transaction accounts is exposed to at least one communication, receive transaction data associated with at least one transaction completed by a first set of transaction accounts of the plurality of transaction accounts with at least one target merchant in a first time period, the transaction data generated by a transaction service provider system from processing the at least one transaction;
• generate a synthetic control group comprising a subset of transaction accounts sampled from the first set of transaction accounts;
• determine, for each transaction account of the synthetic control group, a propensity score representative of a likelihood of said transaction account being associated with a test group using a first machine learning model, wherein holders of transaction accounts in the test group were exposed to the at least one communication;
• determine, for each transaction account of the synthetic control group, a predictive spending score for the second time period using a second machine learning model;
• balance the synthetic control group, wherein the program instructions that cause the at least one processor to balance the synthetic control group cause the at least one processor to:
• assign an entropy balancing weight to each transaction account of the synthetic control group based at least partly on historic transaction data, the propensity score of each transaction account of the synthetic control group, and the predictive spending score of each transaction account of the synthetic control group;
• alter at least one operational parameter of a computer-implemented advertisement program to be executed in a second time period based on the transaction data and the synthetic control group;
• and
• execute the computer-implemented advertisement program in the second time period based on the at least one operational parameter that was altered, wherein the program instructions that cause the at least one processor to execute the computer-implemented advertisement program cause the at least one processor to:
• allocate computing resources based on the at least one operational parameter that was altered.