Real-time well trajectory projection using stochastic processes

A system for stochastically projecting a well trajectory of a bottom hole assembly, the system comprising:

• a bottom hole assembly comprising one or more transducers;
• a trajectory controller coupled to the bottom hole assembly.
• an information handling system coupled to the transducers, the information system comprising:
• a processor, and
• a non-transitory computer readable medium for storing one or more instructions that, when executed, causes the processor to:
• receive a first one or more system model parameters from a system model parameter probability distribution;
• receive a first one or more steering inputs;
• receive a first one or more values corresponding to the bottom hole assembly initial conditions from the one or more transducers at a first position within a subsurface formation;
• and
• stochastically project a first one or more trajectories of the bottom hole assembly from the first position within the subsurface formation to a second position within the subsurface formation based at least in part on one or more of the first one or more system model parameters, the first one or more steering inputs, and the first one or more values corresponding to the bottom hole assembly initial conditions.

A method for stochastically projecting a well trajectory of a bottom hole assembly in a subsurface formation in real time, the method comprising:

• receiving a first one or more system model parameters from a system model parameter probability distribution;
• receiving a first one or more steering inputs;
• receiving a first one or more values corresponding to the bottom hole assembly initial conditions at a first position within the subsurface formation;
• stochastically projecting a first one or more trajectories of the bottom hole assembly from the first position within the subsurface formation to a second position within the subsurface formation;
• advancing the bottom hole assembly from the first position to the second position;
• receiving a second one or more system model parameters from the system model parameter probability distribution;
• receiving a second one or more steering inputs;
• receiving a second one or more values corresponding to the bottom hole assembly initial conditions at a second position within the subsurface formation;
• and
• stochastically projecting a second one or more trajectories of the bottom hole assembly from the second position within the subsurface formation to a third position within the subsurface formation.