System And Method for Determining Cleaning Schedules For Heat Exchangers And Fired Heaters Based On Engineering First Principles And Statistical Modelling

A computer readable medium comprising computer executable instructions for determining cleaning schedules for equipment comprising fired heaters and/or heat exchangers, the computer executable instructions comprising instructions for:

• obtaining historical sensor data;
• transforming the obtained sensor data using an engineering first principles process;
• applying data analytics to the transformed data to generate at least one statistical model;
• predicting an indicator of fouling in the equipment using operating data and the at least one statistical model;
• obtaining cost data associated with the equipment being analyzed;
• determining from the prediction and cost data a desired cleaning schedule for the equipment;
• and
• providing an output associated with the desired cleaning schedule.

A system for determining cleaning schedules for equipment comprising fired heaters and/or heat exchangers, the system comprising a processor and memory, the memory storing computer executable instructions that, when executed by the processor, cause the system to:

• obtain historical sensor data;
• transform the obtained sensor data using an engineering first principles process;
• apply data analytics to the transformed data to generate at least one statistical model;
• predict an indicator of fouling in the equipment using operating data and the at least one statistical model;
• obtain cost data associated with the equipment being analyzed;
• determine from the prediction and cost data a desired cleaning schedule for the equipment;
• and
• provide an output associated with the desired cleaning schedule.

A method of detecting cleaning schedules for equipment comprising fired heaters and/or heat exchangers, comprising:

• determining at least one cleaning detection variable;
• transforming the at least one cleaning detection variable to a ratio of forward and backwards moving averages of the respective variable;
• setting a number of points representing a number of days used in the respective moving average;
• determining whether the transformed ratio exceeds a specified threshold, the threshold being adjustable based on at least one sensitivity requirement;
• selecting a local maximum within a cluster of the points;
• and
• using the local maximum in determining the desired cleaning schedule.