A method for predicting slopping in a converter occurring during decarburization refining in the converter in which molten steel is produced from molten pig iron by blowing oxidizing gas to the molten pig iron in the converter from a top blowing lance, and optionally further blowing oxidizing gas or inert gas from a bottom blowing tuyere, to perform the decarburization refining of the molten pig iron, the method comprising:
- measuring an emission spectrum of a throat combustion flame blowing out from a throat of the converter;
- calculating emission intensity of the measured emission spectrum at a wavelength in a range of 580 to 620 nm;
- and
- predicting occurrence of the slopping based on a time-series change of the emission intensity calculated.