Computer modeling and evaluation of insurance pricing and risk

Abstract

Systems, methods and computer-readable media are provided for determining a premium for a proposed insurance coverage. In various embodiments, a plurality of context variables can be defined related to proposed coverage. Based on defined context variables, historical claim events are extracted from one or more sources of claims data. Extracted historical claim events may be representative of the proposed coverage. Historical claim events can be aggregated based on a time period to form aggregated claims data per time period. The aggregated data can then be used to determine a historical volatility time series based on differences between logarithms of the aggregated claims data per time period for a plurality of time periods. Additionally or alternately, the aggregated claims data per time period can be used to determine a fit of the aggregated data to one or more distributions. The fit can be evaluated, such as based on a fit parameter, to select a distribution. A calculation can then be performed to determine a premium. If a normal distribution is selected, the historical volatility time series can be used to estimate a volatility. This estimated volatility can then be used to calculate a premium.