Method and system for identifying traveling backward passengers and boarding trains in rail transit

A system for identifying TB passengers and boarding trains in rail transit, comprising:

• a ridership data acquisition module, for acquiring data of ridership from an AFC system, and determining a waiting time of passengers according to the ridership data, wherein the waiting time comprises a normal waiting time of normal passengers and a turn-back time of TB passengers;
• the normal waiting time is a time when the normal passengers wait at a station for a train directly into a destination station;
• the turn-back time is the sum of an in-vehicle time when the TB passengers travel in an opposite direction and a waiting time of the TB passengers at an origin station and a turn-back station;
• a passenger choice behavior model establishing module, for establishing a passenger choice behavior model according to the waiting time of the passengers, wherein a passenger choice behavior comprises normal travel and TB;
• a train and station data acquisition module, for acquiring the maximum number of trains passengers have to wait for and the maximum number of turn-back stations;
• a normal waiting time distribution model establishing module, for establishing a normal waiting time distribution model for normal passengers boarding different trains according to the maximum number of trains and the normal waiting time;
• a turn-back time distribution model establishing module, for establishing a turn-back time distribution model for TB passengers choosing different turn-back stations according to the maximum number of turn-back stations and the turn-back time;
• a joint posterior probability calculation module, for calculating a joint posterior probability of parameters in the passenger choice behavior model, the normal waiting time distribution model and the turn-back time distribution model by using a Bayesian model to obtain the joint posterior probability of the parameters of each model;
• a parameter estimation module, for using a NUTS algorithm to estimate the parameters in each joint posterior probability to obtain estimated parameters;
• and
• an identification module, for identifying TB passengers, turn-back stations and boarding trains of TB passengers and boarding trains of normal passengers according to the estimated parameters to obtain an identification result.